US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Minnesota Governor.
Good morning! It’s a Minnesota Poll special edition. We’re digging into the numbers behind the headlines, including what voters think about election security and why so many worry AI could destroy humanity.
Fact Check: The FOX 9 piece examines a political ad by Lisa Demuth in the Minnesota race against Sen. Amy Klobuchar. It analyzes claims and messaging in the attack ad, assessing accuracy and context.
DemuthU.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar stepped in as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee and leads Republican candidate Lisa Demuth in the latest polling.
KlobucharThe race for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat remains statistically tied, according to the latest survey.
St. Paul City Council President Rebecca Noecker speaks with a St. Paul, Minn., resident as part of her campaign for Ramsey County Commissioner Friday, Oct. 9, 2026.
Campaign Goals: Affordability, healthcare, housing and government accountability
KlobucharIn the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll highlighted by MinnMix, Minnesota gubernatorial race results show Amy Klobuchar’s favored Democrat lead over Republican challenger Lisa Demuth, though the margin is slim.
The article reviews Lisa Demuth’s and Amy Klobuchar’s proposed education plans for Minnesota and notes they largely omit funding specifics.
DemuthAmy Klobuchar and Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth say that whichever party’s candidate becomes Minnesota’s first female governor will govern from the center.
The article compares Amy Klobuchar’s and Lisa Demuth’s education plans for Minnesota, noting both have not responded to interview requests about their schooling proposals.
KlobucharThe article discusses Minnesota appearing poised to elect its first female governor, with U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar as the Democratic front-runner.
KlobucharNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAmy Klobuchar | 95.4% | 95.5% | 95.4% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| RLisa Demuth | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 0.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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U.S. senator from Minnesota since 2007 and former Hennepin County attorney, the Democratic nominee for governor of Minnesota in the November 2026 election.
Lisa Demuth, a Republican who became speaker of the Minnesota House in 2025, won her party's nomination for governor of Minnesota on August 11, 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Minnesota Governor margin of victory
| Klobuchar, 2+ pts | 93.5% | |
| Klobuchar, 5+ pts | 83.5% | |
| Klobuchar, 8+ pts | 73.0% | |
| Klobuchar, 11+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Klobuchar, 14+ pts | 39.0% | |
| Klobuchar, 17+ pts | 23.0% | |
| Klobuchar, 20+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Klobuchar, 23+ pts | 6.2% | |
| Klobuchar, 26+ pts | 3.1% |
Minnesota Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 4.7% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 10.7% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 21.5% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 25.0% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 21.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 16.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 3.3% | |
| Democrat 30%+ | 3.8% |
Prices which party wins.
Amy Klobuchar: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.0% · $960 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Amy Klobuchar: Counted · bid 94.8% / ask 96.0% · $75.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Amy Klobuchar
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Minnesota pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
