House · 3 November 2026

MN-03 House 2026

97.1% DKelly Morrison leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 96.5%
Kalshi: 97.2%
Spread: 0.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.7
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MN-03 House.

1 story this week

Top story

ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

armenianweekly.com3h ago

Lee

Chu

Kelly Morrison, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DKelly Morrison	97.1%		96.5%	97.2%	0.7 pts	–
RTyler Bass	3.0%		2.9%	3.1%	0.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Kelly Morrison

Democratic U.S. Representative for Minnesota's 3rd congressional district (since 2025)

Kelly Morrison, a Democratic-Farmer-Labor physician who has represented Minnesota's 3rd congressional district since 2025, is running for re-election in 2026 against Republican Tyler Bass, a small business owner.

Born 1969 · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Full candidate profile →

Tyler Bass

Republican

Tyler Bass, a Republican small business owner, is his party's 2026 nominee in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district against Democratic-Farmer-Labor incumbent Kelly Morrison, who has held the seat since 2025.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi305 contracts

Minnesota's 3rd District margin of victory

Morrison, 16+ pts		94.7%
Morrison, 19+ pts		84.5%
Morrison, 22+ pts		73.5%
Morrison, 25+ pts		63.5%
Morrison, 28+ pts		52.5%
Morrison, 31+ pts		42.5%
Morrison, 34+ pts		31.5%
Morrison, 37+ pts		21.5%
Morrison, 40+ pts		10.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.3K traded

MN-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.1% implied
Democrat 0-5%		0.5%
Democrat 5-15%		0.3%
Democrat 15-20%		–
Democrat 20-25%		11.0%
Democrat 25-30%		25.0%
Democrat 30-35%		32.0%
Democrat 35-40%		–
Democrat 40-45%		5.0%
Democrat 45%+		1.3%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$29.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Kelly Morrison: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 97.9% · $168 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.7K contracts traded