nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026

Minnesota Senate 2026

86.7% DPeggy Flanagan leads TruthIndex™Likely D
Polymarket
87.5%
Kalshi
86.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Minnesota Senate.

  1. Peggy Flanagan, Michele Tafoya set for their first senate debate on Politics Friday

    Michele Tafoya is scheduled to participate in her first Minnesota Senate debate against Peggy Flanagan, as discussed on MPR News’ Politics Friday.

    Minnesota Public Radio (MPR)Tafoya
  2. Flanagan v. Tafoya: What to know about the U.S. Senate race

    Thanks for liking this story! We have added it to a list of your favorite stories.

    Minnesota Public Radio (MPR)FlanaganTafoya
  3. The five biggest takeaways from the MN Poll

    Good morning! It’s a Minnesota Poll special edition. We’re digging into the numbers behind the headlines, including what voters think about election security and why so many worry AI could destroy humanity.

    Minnesota Star-TribuneFlanaganKlobucharFinstadTafoyaDemuth
  4. New KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows tight races for Minnesota statewide offices

    The race for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat remains statistically tied, according to the latest survey.

    wdayradionow.comFlanaganKlobucharDemuth
  5. Forest Lake parents furious over school video featuring Flanagan

    With Election Day just weeks away, some Minnesota high school seniors are preparing to cast their first ballots.

    alphanews.orgFlanagan
More coverage 9
  1. Hottest 2026 Midterm Races: Democrats Turek and Flanagan Lead In Iowa, Minnesota (Updated Daily)

    Michele Tafoya is the Republican challenger in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race. In the latest polls highlighted, Tafoya trails Democrat Peggy Flanagan by about three points, with Flanagan polling 45% to Tafoya’s 42% (poll…

    ForbesTafoya
  2. Michele Tafoya closes the gap with Flanagan in Minnesota Senate race

    "The more that Minnesotans learn about me and my opponent and see what my opponent has failed to do over the last eight years alongside [Democratic Gov.] Tim Walz, they're understanding Minnesota needs change.

    Fox NewsTafoyaFlanagan
  3. Tafoya Drops 5-Point Crime Plan on Flanagan and Delivers a Jab at Trump's Minnesota Mess

    Republican Senate nominee Michele Tafoya, the former NBC Sports sideline reporter turned first-time candidate, planted her closing flag squarely on crime Tuesday, unveiling a five-point public safety plan at the…

    Latin TimesTafoya
  4. Trump Endorses Tafoya, Flanagan Up 4 Points In New Poll

    Peggy Flanagan currently leads the Minnesota U.S. Senate race, according to a Star Tribune-KARE 11 poll, 47% to 43% over Republican Michele Tafoya, with 9% undecided (800 likely voters; poll conducted Oct 5–7; MOE…

    knoxradio.comFlanaganTafoyaAlso in lakesarearadio.net
  5. Michele Tafoya says she’s ‘pro-choice,’ despite record on abortion

    Peggy Flanagan: Michele Tafoya would be a ‘yes, sir’ senator for Trump August 13, 2026 / 11:22

    ms.nowNordoneTafoya
  6. Small Business Advocacy Group Endorses Michele Tafoya for U.S. Senate

    Michele Tafoya, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, arrives to vote on Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026, in Minneapolis.

    knsiradio.comTafoya
  7. Minnesota doctors weigh in on U.S. Senate race

    A group of Minnesota physicians who spoke at a virtual news conference are endorsing Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Peggy Flanagan and criticizing Republican Michele Tafoya.

    InforumFlanagan
  8. Minnesota’s sleepy Senate race gets a burst of activity

    The article discusses Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race, noting a late surge in activity as both candidates ramp up campaigning in greater Minnesota.

    minnmix.comSocial postFlanagan
  9. As Senate race tightens, Flanagan and Tafoya make their final pitches

    Peggy Flanagan (D) and Michele Tafoya (R) are in a tightening Minnesota U.S. Senate race, with Tafoya criticizing Flanagan over fraud-related allegations.

    minnmix.comSocial postFlanagan

Peggy Flanagan, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DPeggy Flanagan 86.7% 87.5% 86.5% 1.0 pts –
RMichele Tafoya 13.3% 12.5% 13.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/minnesota/embed.html" title="Minnesota Senate: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/minnesota/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=senate-minnesota">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/minnesota/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=senate-minnesota"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/senate/minnesota/card-landscape.png" alt="Minnesota Senate: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Michele Tafoya

Michele Tafoya

Republican

Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster for CBS, ESPN, ABC and NBC, is the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in Minnesota in 2026.

Born 1964 · Manhattan Beach, California
Peggy Flanagan

Peggy Flanagan

Democratic Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota (since 2019)

Peggy Flanagan, who has been Minnesota's lieutenant governor since 2019 and belongs to the DFL, is the Democratic nominee for Minnesota's open U.S. Senate seat in 2026.

Born 1979 · St. Louis Park, Minnesota

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi78.6K contracts

Minnesota Senate margin of victory

Flanagan, 1+ pts
84.0%
Flanagan, 3+ pts
74.5%
Flanagan, 5+ pts
60.5%
Flanagan, 7+ pts
42.5%
Flanagan, 9+ pts
28.5%
Flanagan, 11+ pts
19.5%
Flanagan, 13+ pts
12.0%
Flanagan, 15+ pts
5.1%
Flanagan, 17+ pts
2.9%
Flanagan, 19+ pts
0.9%
Flanagan, 21+ pts
0.9%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$5.9K traded

Minnesota Senate Election Margin of Victory

Republican 5%+
4.5%
Republican 0-5%
15.0%
Democrat 0-5%
22.5%
Democrat 5-10%
32.5%
Democrat 10-15%
14.0%
Democrat 15-20%
–
Democrat 20-25%
4.7%
Democrat 25%+
2.6%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$272.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Peggy Flanagan: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 88.0% · $63.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.1M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Peggy Flanagan: Counted · bid 86.0% / ask 87.0% · $269.4K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Peggy Flanagan

If a representative of the Democratic (DFL) party is sworn in as a Senator of Minnesota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Minnesota

  1. Minnesota GovernorD95%
  2. MN-01 HouseR76%
  3. MN-02 HouseD93%
  4. MN-03 HouseD97%
  5. MN-04 HouseD96%
  6. MN-05 HouseD94%
  7. MN-06 HouseR95%
  8. MN-07 HouseR97%