US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MN-05 House.
The U.S. is investigating Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) over decades-old immigration paperwork, with a raid on her home and related developments as part of a Justice Department probe.
OmarThe article provides an overview of the investigation surrounding U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar (MN-05). It outlines the nature of the inquiry, key events, and any official actions taken by authorities.
OmarBBC reports on the criminal investigation involving U.S. Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (MN-05).
Omar1st District (Brad Finstad, Republican): focus on fraud and waste reduction, limited government, tax relief, and support for rural health providers.
The article discusses Ilhan Omar (D-MN-5) in the context of scrutiny over a federal investigation related to her family’s immigration history.
John Nagel is the Republican candidate facing incumbent Ilhan Omar in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District (MN-5) for the 2026 election.
Federal authorities seized Omar’s phone and issued subpoenas to some of her relatives as part of a grand jury investigation.
OmarFederal authorities are probing Ilhan Omar (MN-05) over possible fraud in her immigration paperwork.
OmarNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party wins · Polymarket and Kalshi | ||||||
| DIlhan Omar | 93.7% | 94.8% | 93.5% | 1.3 pts | – | |
| RJohn Nagel | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 1.4 pts | – | |
| Which candidate wins · Kalshi | ||||||
| DeVelle Jackson | 1.5% Kalshi only |
– | 1.5% | – | – | |
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Ilhan Omar, a Democratic-Farmer-Labor member who has represented Minnesota's 5th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2019, faces Republican John Nagel, a retired police officer, in her 2026 bid for re-election.
John Nagel, a Republican retired police officer and 2024 nominee for the Minnesota House of Representatives, faces Democratic-Farmer-Labor incumbent Ilhan Omar for Minnesota's 5th congressional district in 2026.
DeVelle Jackson is a candidate for the US House in Minnesota's 5th congressional district (MN-05) in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Minnesota's 5th District margin of victory
| Omar, 47+ pts | 93.5% | |
| Omar, 50+ pts | 84.0% | |
| Omar, 53+ pts | 71.0% | |
| Omar, 56+ pts | – | |
| Omar, 59+ pts | 53.0% | |
| Omar, 62+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Omar, 65+ pts | 15.0% | |
| Omar, 68+ pts | 4.5% | |
| Omar, 71+ pts | 5.3% implied |
MN-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 4.6% | |
| Democrat 0-35% | 0.4% | |
| Democrat 35-45% | 3.4% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 5.3% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | 5.5% | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 17.0% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 28.0% | |
| Democrat 65-70% | 19.5% | |
| Democrat 70-75% | 2.6% | |
| Democrat 75%+ | – |
Prices which party wins.
Ilhan Omar: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 95.0% · $36.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Ilhan Omar: Counted · bid 93.4% / ask 93.5% · $141.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Ilhan Omar
If the House member sworn in for MN-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
