nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

MN-01 House 2026

76.3% RBrad Finstad leads TruthIndex™Likely R
Polymarket
74.5%
Kalshi
76.5%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for MN-01 House.

  1. Jake Johnson Was Endorsed and Funded by Tim Walz. Now Johnson Is Trying to Run Away From Walz.

    The article argues that Jake Johnson, a candidate in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District (MN-01), initially received endorsement and campaign funding from Governor Tim Walz, but has since sought to distance himself…

    townhall.comJohnson
  2. Congressional candidate accused Rep. Brad Finstad of doctoring photo in campaign ad

    Jake Johnson, the DFL candidate for Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District, is accusing incumbent Rep. Brad Finstad of doctoring a campaign ad.

    minnmix.comSocial postJohnson
  3. The five biggest takeaways from the MN Poll

    Good morning! It’s a Minnesota Poll special edition. We’re digging into the numbers behind the headlines, including what voters think about election security and why so many worry AI could destroy humanity.

    Minnesota Star-TribuneFlanaganKlobucharFinstadTafoyaDemuth
  4. Minnesota First Congressional District Candidate Forum

    Brad Finstad (incumbent) faced challenger Jake Johnson in a Minnesota CD1 (MN-01) congressional candidate forum in Mankato.

    KTTCFinstad
  5. Finstad and Johnson Debate Plans for Congress at Candidate Forum

    Jake Johnson participated in a candidate forum with incumbent Rep. Brad Finstad in Mankato, discussing plans for Congress as part of the MN-01 race.

    minnesota-express.comJohnson
More coverage 2
  1. Potential Upset Brewing In Southern Minnesota's US House Race

    Brad Finstad (R) faces a tightening race in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District.

    PatchJohnsonJohnsonFinstad
  2. House Republicans brace for midterm blowout

    The article discusses how House Republicans are bracing for potential midterm losses and facing tight races in several districts, including Alabama's 04th/05th? (the excerpt mentions Rep.

    Punchbowl NewsFinstadSneedPusczek

Brad Finstad, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RBrad Finstad 76.3% 74.5% 76.5% 2.0 pts –
DJake Johnson 23.8% 25.5% 23.5% 2.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Brad Finstad

Brad Finstad

Republican U.S. Representative for Minnesota's 1st congressional district (since 2022)

Brad Finstad, a Republican who has represented Minnesota's 1st congressional district since 2022 and previously served in the Minnesota House, is running for re-election in 2026 against Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Jake Johnson.

Born 1976 · New Ulm, Minnesota

Jake Johnson

Democratic

Jake Johnson, a Democratic-Farmer-Labor high school teacher, is his party's 2026 nominee in Minnesota's 1st congressional district against Republican incumbent Brad Finstad, who has held the seat since 2022.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi7.5K contracts

Minnesota's 1st District margin of victory

Finstad, 1+ pts
67.0%
Finstad, 4+ pts
41.0%
Finstad, 7+ pts
20.0%
Finstad, 10+ pts
9.0%
Finstad, 13+ pts
6.3%
implied
Finstad, 16+ pts
5.6%
implied
Finstad, 19+ pts
3.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi2.8K contracts

Minnesota's 1st District margin of victory

Johnson, 2+ pts
15.0%
Johnson, 5+ pts
5.1%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$20.2K traded

MN-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+
2.2%
Republican 15-18%
2.3%
Republican 12-15%
4.5%
Republican 9-12%
–
Republican 6-9%
13.2%
Republican 3-6%
20.0%
Republican 0-3%
24.5%
Democrat 0-3%
17.3%
Democrat 3-6%
10.5%
Democrat 6%+
6.3%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$56.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Brad Finstad: Counted · bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% · $5.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi359.6K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Brad Finstad: Counted · bid 76.0% / ask 77.0% · $62.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Brad Finstad

If the House member sworn in for MN-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Minnesota

  1. Minnesota SenateD87%
  2. Minnesota GovernorD95%
  3. MN-02 HouseD93%
  4. MN-03 HouseD97%
  5. MN-04 HouseD96%
  6. MN-05 HouseD94%
  7. MN-06 HouseR95%
  8. MN-07 HouseR97%