US Midterms 2026
Type two letters or more. Arrow keys move through the results, Enter opens one, Esc closes.
Recent coverage for MN-06 House.
The article highlights Bassmaster Open Series competitor Doug Chapin and his use of “freak baits” (urchins like Hags Prickly Pear and Hideup Full Cast) as effective bass lures for both smallmouth and largemouth.
1st District (Brad Finstad, Republican): focus on fraud and waste reduction, limited government, tax relief, and support for rural health providers.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTom Emmer | 95.1% | 95.7% | 94.4% | 1.3 pts | – | |
| DDoug Chapin | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 2.0 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Doug Chapin, a college professor, is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee for Minnesota's 6th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Tom Emmer in the November 3 general election.
Tom Emmer, a Republican who has represented Minnesota's 6th congressional district since 2015 and served as House majority whip since 2023, faces Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Doug Chapin, a college professor, in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Minnesota's 6th District margin of victory
| Emmer, 4+ pts | 92.1% | |
| Emmer, 7+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Emmer, 10+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Emmer, 13+ pts | 62.5% | |
| Emmer, 16+ pts | 46.0% | |
| Emmer, 19+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Emmer, 22+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Emmer, 25+ pts | 8.9% | |
| Emmer, 28+ pts | 4.3% |
MN-06 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 2.0% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 2.4% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 31.5% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 32.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 31.0% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 6.2% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 1.1% | |
| Republican 30%+ | 0.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Tom Emmer: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 96.3% · $1.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Tom Emmer: Counted · bid 93.9% / ask 94.9% · $1.1K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Tom Emmer
If the House member sworn in for MN-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
