US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MN-07 House.
Erik Osberg will debate Rep. Michelle Fischbach for Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District on Prairie Public Television, airing tonight (Thursday) at 7 p.m.
Erik Osberg is one of the candidates running in Minnesota’s MN-07 House race. The article highlights a televised face-off between Rep. Michelle Fischbach and Erik Osberg on Prairie Public TV, scheduled for Thursday.
1st District (Brad Finstad, Republican): focus on fraud and waste reduction, limited government, tax relief, and support for rural health providers.
Erik Osberg, the DFL challenger in Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, will face incumbent Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach in the upcoming election.
Erik Osberg is the Democratic challenger challenging incumbent Rep. Michelle Fischbach in Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District (MN-7). The two-way debate airs live at 8 p.m.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMichelle Fischbach | 97.1% | 97.5% | 96.8% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| DErik Osberg | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 0.6 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Erik Osberg, the owner of a media marketing firm, is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee for Minnesota's 7th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Michelle Fischbach.
Michelle Fischbach, a Republican who has represented Minnesota's 7th congressional district since 2021 and served as lieutenant governor of Minnesota from 2018 to 2019, faces Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Erik Osberg in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Minnesota's 7th District margin of victory
| Fischbach, 18+ pts | 85.5% | |
| Fischbach, 21+ pts | 74.5% | |
| Fischbach, 24+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Fischbach, 27+ pts | 55.5% | |
| Fischbach, 30+ pts | 45.5% | |
| Fischbach, 33+ pts | 36.5% | |
| Fischbach, 36+ pts | 27.5% | |
| Fischbach, 39+ pts | 20.0% | |
| Fischbach, 42+ pts | 8.4% |
MN-07 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 2.5% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.4% | |
| Republican 5-15% | 4.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 19.3% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 23.1% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 24.5% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 13.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 4.7% | |
| Republican 40-45% | – | |
| Republican 45%+ | 3.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Michelle Fischbach: Counted · bid 96.8% / ask 98.2% · $454 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Michelle Fischbach: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 97.7% · $530 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Michelle Fischbach
If the House member sworn in for MN-07 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
