US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for MN-02 House.
In the MinnMix recap of the Oct. 4 At Issue program, DFL nominee Matt Little and Republican nominee Eric Pratt debated Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District on WCCO’s EyeWitness News.
The page is a profile from KSTP’s Free Air Time series about Eric Pratt, a candidate for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District (MN-02).
PrattThe MinnMix page on early voting in Minnesota provides general information about early voting but does not offer specific, up-to-date details about Congressional District 2 (MN-02) candidates beyond listing Eric Pratt…
Eric Pratt is the Republican candidate in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District race. He and Democrat-turned- challenger Matt Little are vying to replace U.S. Rep.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMatt Little | 93.4% | 94.5% | 92.3% | 2.2 pts | – | |
| REric Pratt | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 0.8 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Eric Pratt, a Republican who has served in the Minnesota Senate since 2013, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Matt Little.
Matt Little, a Democratic-Farmer-Labor attorney, former Lakeville mayor and former Minnesota state senator, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Republican Eric Pratt.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Minnesota's 2nd District margin of victory
| Little, 1+ pts | 91.0% | |
| Little, 4+ pts | 83.5% | |
| Little, 7+ pts | 75.0% | |
| Little, 10+ pts | 62.5% | |
| Little, 13+ pts | 48.0% | |
| Little, 16+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Little, 19+ pts | 23.5% | |
| Little, 22+ pts | 15.5% | |
| Little, 25+ pts | 7.6% |
MN-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 4.8% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | – | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 14.5% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | – | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 26.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 24.0% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 4.4% | |
| Democrat 30%+ | 4.9% |
Prices which party wins.
Matt Little: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 94.9% · $7.6K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Matt Little: Counted · bid 91.9% / ask 92.6% · $7.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Matt Little
If the House member sworn in for MN-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic (DFL) Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
