House · 3 November 2026

WI-01 House 2026

62.1% RBryan Steil leads TruthIndex™Lean R

Polymarket: 62.5%
Kalshi: 61.5%
Spread: 2.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: −2.7
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for WI-01 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races

Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”

insidepoliticalmoney.comYesterday

Yesterday
DCCC: Bryan Steil will raise health care costs for 30,000 people in WI-01 if he has his way
The article from State Affairs Pro reports that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) claims Representative Bryan Steil would raise health care costs for about 30,000 residents in Wisconsin’s 1st…

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoSteil
AFP Action: Congratulates Bryan Steil on WI-01 reelection
AFP Action congratulates Bryan Steil on winning reelection to Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District (WI-01).

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoSteil
Bryan Steil took $40k from Blackstone executives before voting against renters, thousands more from Wall Street, banks, mortgage providers
Approximately $40,000 in contributions from Blackstone employees in the weeks around votes rolling back rental assistance and related housing policies.

wrjn.comYesterdaySteil

Bryan Steil, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RBryan Steil	62.1%		62.5%	61.5%	1.0 pts	–
DMitchell Berman	38.2%		37.5%	39.5%	2.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wi-01/embed.html" title="WI-01 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wi-01/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wi-01">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wi-01/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-wi-01"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/wi-01/card-landscape.png" alt="WI-01 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Bryan Steil

Republican U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district (since 2019)

Bryan Steil, a Republican who has represented Wisconsin's 1st congressional district since 2019 and chairs the House Administration Committee, faces Democrat Mitchell Berman, a nurse, in the 2026 general election.

Born 1981 · Janesville, Wisconsin

Full candidate profile →

Mitchell Berman

Democratic

Mitchell Berman, a nurse and Democrat, is the Democratic nominee for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Bryan Steil after winning a four-way Democratic primary.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.5K contracts

Wisconsin's 1st District margin of victory

Steil, 2+ pts		57.5%
Steil, 5+ pts		37.0%
Steil, 8+ pts		22.5%
Steil, 11+ pts		8.8%
Steil, 14+ pts		5.8%
Steil, 17+ pts		7.5% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi1.5K contracts

Wisconsin's 1st District margin of victory

Berman, 1+ pts		27.5%
Berman, 4+ pts		14.0%
Berman, 7+ pts		6.9%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.2K traded

WI-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 12%+		15.5%
Republican 9-12%		1.8%
Republican 6-9%		14.4%
Republican 3-6%		14.5%
Republican 0-3%		14.5%
Democrat 0-3%		22.0%
Democrat 3-6%		8.6%
Democrat 6-9%		6.3%
Democrat 9-12%		4.9%
Democrat 12%+		2.1%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$18.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Bryan Steil: Counted · bid 62.0% / ask 63.0% · $45.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi77.1K contracts traded