House · 3 November 2026

GA-02 House 2026

95.4% DSanford Bishop leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 97.2%
Spread: 2.7 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Sanford Bishop, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSanford Bishop	95.4%		94.5%	97.2%	2.7 pts	–
RMatt Day	4.3%		5.1%	3.1%	1.9 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Matt Day

Republican

Matt Day, a Republican businessman, is his party's nominee for Georgia's 2nd congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic U.S. Representative Sanford Bishop, who was re-elected with 56.3% of the vote in 2024.

Full candidate profile →

Sanford Bishop

Democratic U.S. Representative for Georgia's 2nd congressional district (since 1993)

Sanford Bishop, a Democrat who has represented Georgia's 2nd congressional district in the U.S. House since 1993, seeks another term in 2026 against Republican Matt Day, a businessman.

Born 1947 · Mobile, Alabama

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.8K contracts

Georgia's 2nd District margin of victory

Bishop, 5+ pts		–
Bishop, 8+ pts		93.3%
Bishop, 11+ pts		90.0%
Bishop, 14+ pts		80.5%
Bishop, 17+ pts		68.5%
Bishop, 20+ pts		53.5%
Bishop, 23+ pts		33.5%
Bishop, 26+ pts		22.0%
Bishop, 29+ pts		11.7%

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$27.2K traded

Prices which party wins.

Sanford Bishop: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $1.5K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi26.2K contracts traded