US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for GA-11 House.
The Georgia House of Representatives is considering a Senate-approved congressional map after a House committee advanced it. The map has now moved toward a vote on the House floor.
1) The unknowns and jockeying around potential leadership contenders, including Jason Smith (Missouri) and other members who are considering runs or influenced by internal groups like the Republican Study Committee…
The Cook Political Report reports eleven additional House races shifting toward Democrats, with notable concentration in Midwestern red states like Ohio, Nebraska, and Kansas.
The article discusses how the House Republicans’ razor-thin 218-213 majority is under threat due to retirements (Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene) and the death of Rep.
The page covers the Ohio House District 11 race featuring incumbent Democrat Crystal Lett (Columbus) seeking a second term versus Republican challenger Shawn Kaeser, a school teacher.
The Albany Herald article covers the District 151 race for the Georgia House, focusing on challengers Wolfe and Lockhart and their plans for schools, rural job creation, and health care.
The article is about Jennifer Balkcom, the Republican candidate for North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJohn Cowan | 95.7% | 96.2% | 95.2% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DChris Harden | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 1.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Chris Harden, an attorney, is the Democratic nominee for Georgia's 11th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican neurosurgeon John Cowan in the November 3 general election.
John Cowan, a neurosurgeon and 2020 candidate for Georgia's 14th district, is the Republican nominee for the open 11th congressional district seat in 2026, facing Democratic attorney Chris Harden.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Georgia's 11th District margin of victory
| Cowan, 7+ pts | 83.5% | |
| Cowan, 10+ pts | 72.5% | |
| Cowan, 13+ pts | 58.5% | |
| Cowan, 16+ pts | 43.5% | |
| Cowan, 19+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Cowan, 22+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Cowan, 25+ pts | 9.6% | |
| Cowan, 28+ pts | 4.5% | |
| Cowan, 31+ pts | 6.2% implied |
Prices which party wins.
John Cowan: Counted · bid 95.9% / ask 96.4% · $8.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
John Cowan: Counted · bid 93.7% / ask 96.6% · $6.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: John Cowan
If the House member sworn in for GA-11 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
