Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

GA-09 House 2026

96.1% RAndrew Clyde leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.5%
Kalshi
95.5%
Spread
1.1 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for GA-09 House.

  1. Brent Taylor Aims to Flip Redrawn Tennessee 9th District

    The article covers the race for Tennessee’s newly drawn 9th Congressional District (TN-9), focusing on Republican Brent Taylor and Democrat Justin Pearson as primary contenders.

    pro.stateaffairs.comPearsonGegenMeyer
  2. Who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area during the 2026 midterm elections? - CBS Chicago

    The page appears to discuss who is running for the U.S. House in the Chicago area for the 2026 midterms, including information on candidates and elections in various districts.

  3. Fox News : Most dramatic moments from Rep Mike Lawler’s fiery debate against Dem Cait Conley in battle for House control

    The article highlights a fiery on-air debate in New York’s swing district (NY-08) between Rep. Mike Lawler (R) and Democrat Cait Conley.

    minncity.comMizrahiGegen
  4. District 151 challengers Wolfe, Lockhart offer plans for schools, rural jobs, health care

    The Albany Herald article covers the District 151 race for the Georgia House, focusing on challengers Wolfe and Lockhart and their plans for schools, rural job creation, and health care.

  5. Georgia House Republicans spend big to defend majority

    Georgia House Republicans are deploying a $1.2 million media push to defend their majority ahead of potential Democratic flips.

    Atlanta Journal-ConstitutionSmithClyde
More coverage 3
  1. The Midterm Battle over Data Centers: Memphis House Candidate Justin Pearson Fights Elon Musk’s xAI

    The Democracy Now! segment focuses on Tennessee politics, not Georgia. It highlights Democratic state Representative Justin J.

    Democracy NowGegenTaylor
  2. ACLU Voter Education Fund and ACLU of Georgia Launch $250K Campaign to Educate Georgia Voters Ahead of Midterms

    The ACLU Voter Education Fund and ACLU of Georgia have launched a $250,000 campaign targeting select Georgia House races to inform voters about how candidates’ positions on civil rights: such as voting rights, abortion,…

    aclu.orgClyde
  3. NFIB Georgia PAC Endorses Candidates for Statewide Office, General Assembly

    Result: The NFIB Georgia PAC endorsement news lists Georgia House and Senate incumbents and candidates endorsed for statewide office and the General Assembly, including many Districts.

    nfib.comClyde

Andrew Clyde, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RAndrew Clyde 96.1% 96.5% 95.5% 0.9 pts –
DCaitlyn Gegen 3.1% 3.2% 2.1% 1.1 pts –

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ga-09/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ga-09">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Andrew Clyde

Andrew Clyde

Republican U.S. Representative for Georgia's 9th congressional district (since 2021)

Andrew Clyde, a Republican businessman and retired Navy commander who has represented Georgia's 9th congressional district since 2021, faces Democrat Caitlyn Gegen, a community organizer, in his 2026 reelection race.

Born 1963 · Walkerton, Ontario, Canada

Caitlyn Gegen

Democratic

Caitlyn Gegen, a community organizer, is the Democratic nominee for Georgia's 9th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Andrew Clyde in the November 3 general election.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi260 contracts

Georgia's 9th District margin of victory

Clyde, 16+ pts
95.1%
Clyde, 19+ pts
–
Clyde, 22+ pts
74.0%
Clyde, 25+ pts
62.5%
Clyde, 28+ pts
70.0%
Clyde, 31+ pts
45.0%
implied
Clyde, 34+ pts
34.5%
Clyde, 37+ pts
22.0%
Clyde, 40+ pts
11.2%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$60.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Andrew Clyde: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 96.6% · $7.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi11.2K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Andrew Clyde: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 96.0% · $4.9K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Andrew Clyde

If the House member sworn in for GA-09 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi