House · 3 November 2026

KS-03 House 2026

94.9% DSharice Davids leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 96.4%
Spread: 1.9 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.4
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for KS-03 House.

3 stories this week

Top story

U.S. House candidates for Kansas on the issues: SNAP and Medicaid

Topic: U.S. House candidates for Kansas on the issues SNAP and Medicaid, focusing on Eric Jenkins (Republican) for KS-03.

johnsoncountypost.comYesterdayJenkins

Wednesday, Oct 14
O'Sullivan Makes Snooker History with Historic 153 Clearance.
Eric Jenkins reports that Ronnie O’Sullivan achieved a historic 153 clearance in snooker, marking a notable milestone in the sport.

reeltrends.co.ukYesterdayJenkins
Desperate for Nourishment, Arid Kenyans Resort to the Gingerbread Plant
An article by Eric Jenkins (October 16, 2026) explores how Kenyans facing severe drought are turning to the so-called “gingerbread plant” as a survival resource.

reeltrends.co.ukYesterdayJenkins

Sharice Davids, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DSharice Davids	94.9%		94.5%	96.4%	1.9 pts	–
REric Jenkins	4.4%		4.5%	3.9%	0.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-03/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ks-03">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Eric Jenkins

Republican

Eric Jenkins, a Republican and former Shawnee city councilman, is his party's nominee for Kansas's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Sharice Davids in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Sharice Davids

Democratic U.S. Representative for Kansas's 3rd congressional district (since 2019)

Sharice Davids, a Democrat who has represented Kansas's 3rd congressional district since 2019, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Eric Jenkins, a former Shawnee city councilman.

Born 1980 · Frankfurt, West Germany

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi24.5K contracts

Kansas's 3rd District margin of victory

Davids, 5+ pts		93.7%
Davids, 8+ pts		91.3%
Davids, 11+ pts		83.0%
Davids, 14+ pts		72.0%
Davids, 17+ pts		59.0%
Davids, 20+ pts		48.0%
Davids, 23+ pts		36.0%
Davids, 26+ pts		25.0%
Davids, 29+ pts		13.3%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.6K traded

KS-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		4.3%
Democrat 0-5%		3.5%
Democrat 5-10%		4.7%
Democrat 10-15%		26.5%
Democrat 15-20%		25.5%
Democrat 20-25%		26.5%
Democrat 25-30%		7.1%
Democrat 30%+		3.5%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$33.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Sharice Davids: Counted · bid 93.9% / ask 95.1% · $5.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi15.5K contracts traded