House · 3 November 2026

KS-04 House 2026

95.3% RRon Estes leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.0%
Kalshi: 95.4%
Spread: 0.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for KS-04 House.

1 story this week

Top story

Former Ag Secretary Dan Glickman Joins Katy Tyndell in Wellington

Katy Tyndell is a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in Kansas’ 4th Congressional District (KS-04). The article notes that former U.S.

Wellington Daily News12h agoTyndell

Ron Estes, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RRon Estes	95.3%		95.0%	95.4%	0.4 pts	–
DKaty Tyndell	4.5%		4.5%	4.5%	0.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-04/embed.html" title="KS-04 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-04/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ks-04">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-04/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ks-04"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-04/card-landscape.png" alt="KS-04 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Katy Tyndell

Democratic

Katy Tyndell, a Democrat and attorney, is her party's nominee for Kansas's 4th congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Ron Estes in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Ron Estes

Republican U.S. Representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (since 2017)

Ron Estes, a Republican who has represented Kansas's 4th congressional district since 2017 and earlier served as Kansas State Treasurer, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Katy Tyndell, an attorney.

Born 1956 · Topeka, Kansas

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.5K contracts

Kansas's 4th District margin of victory

Estes, 5+ pts		90.0%
Estes, 8+ pts		79.5%
Estes, 11+ pts		68.5%
Estes, 14+ pts		54.5%
Estes, 17+ pts		41.0%
Estes, 20+ pts		25.5%
Estes, 23+ pts		15.5%
Estes, 26+ pts		7.5%
Estes, 29+ pts		3.8%
Estes, 32+ pts		5.5% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.7K traded

KS-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		4.5%
Republican 0-5%		–
Republican 5-10%		3.4%
Republican 10-15%		18.4%
Republican 15-20%		29.0%
Republican 20-25%		23.5%
Republican 25-30%		5.5%
Republican 30%+		4.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$110.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ron Estes: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.0% · $993 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi12.6K contracts traded