House · 3 November 2026

KS-01 House 2026

95.3% RTracey Mann leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.0%
Kalshi: 95.5%
Spread: 1.3 pts
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for KS-01 House.

1 story this week

Top story

Lauren Reinhold says she’ll look beyond party lines to represent Kansas’ 1st District | Elections

Lauren Reinhold positions herself as a candidate who will look beyond party lines to represent Kansas’ 1st Congressional District.

themercury.com23h agoReinhold

Tracey Mann, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RTracey Mann	95.3%		95.0%	95.5%	0.5 pts	–
DLauren Reinhold	3.9%		3.1%	4.5%	1.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-01/embed.html" title="KS-01 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-01/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ks-01">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-01/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ks-01"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ks-01/card-landscape.png" alt="KS-01 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Lauren Reinhold

Democratic

Lauren Reinhold, a former federal employee, is the Democratic nominee for Kansas's 1st congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Tracey Mann in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Tracey Mann

Republican U.S. Representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district (since 2021)

Tracey Mann, a Republican who has represented Kansas's 1st congressional district since 2021 and earlier served as lieutenant governor of Kansas, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Lauren Reinhold, a former federal employee.

Born 1976 · Quinter, Kansas

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi406 contracts

Kansas's 1st District margin of victory

Mann, 16+ pts		87.3%
Mann, 19+ pts		77.5%
Mann, 22+ pts		64.5%
Mann, 25+ pts		48.5%
Mann, 28+ pts		33.5%
Mann, 31+ pts		21.5%
Mann, 34+ pts		11.7%
Mann, 37+ pts		5.8%
Mann, 40+ pts		7.8% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.9K traded

KS-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		5.2%
Republican 0-10%		1.1%
Republican 10-15%		4.3%
Republican 15-20%		20.0%
Republican 20-25%		23.0%
Republican 25-30%		23.0%
Republican 30-35%		21.3%
Republican 35-40%		5.4%
Republican 40%+		8.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$36.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Tracey Mann: Counted · bid 93.1% / ask 96.9% · $400 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi4.2K contracts traded