nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

OK-02 House 2026

98.0% RJosh Brecheen leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
97.8%
Kalshi
98.0%
Spread
0.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.4
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for OK-02 House.

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Josh Brecheen, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RJosh Brecheen 98.0% 97.8% 98.0% 0.3 pts –
DBrandon Wade 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Brandon Wade

Democratic

Brandon Wade, a machinery assembler and Democrat who was his party's 2024 nominee for the seat, again faces Republican incumbent Josh Brecheen in Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district in 2026.

Josh Brecheen

Josh Brecheen

Republican U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district (since 2023)

Josh Brecheen, a Republican former Oklahoma state senator and citizen of the Choctaw Nation who has represented Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district since 2023, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Brandon Wade.

Born 1979

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.7K contracts

Oklahoma's 2nd District margin of victory

Brecheen, 31+ pts
93.2%
Brecheen, 34+ pts
83.0%
Brecheen, 37+ pts
72.5%
Brecheen, 40+ pts
62.5%
Brecheen, 43+ pts
52.5%
Brecheen, 46+ pts
42.5%
Brecheen, 49+ pts
32.5%
Brecheen, 52+ pts
22.5%
Brecheen, 55+ pts
11.4%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.0K traded

OK-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
0.7%
Republican 0-20%
2.7%
Republican 20-30%
2.8%
Republican 30-35%
18.5%
Republican 35-40%
27.0%
Republican 40-45%
27.8%
Republican 45-50%
20.0%
Republican 50-55%
3.7%
Republican 55-60%
3.8%
Republican 60%+
3.5%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$33.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Josh Brecheen: Counted · bid 96.7% / ask 98.8% · $101 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.3K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Josh Brecheen: Counted · bid 96.9% / ask 99.2% · $254 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Josh Brecheen

If the House member sworn in for OK-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Oklahoma

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  2. Oklahoma GovernorR91%
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  4. OK-03 HouseR96%
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  6. OK-05 HouseR88%