House · 3 November 2026

OK-04 House 2026

95.9% RTom Cole leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.1%
Kalshi: 95.8%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.6
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Tom Cole, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RTom Cole	95.9%		96.1%	95.8%	0.3 pts	–
DMitchell Jacob	3.1%		3.4%	3.0%	0.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mitchell Jacob

Democratic

Mitchell Jacob, a Democrat who was his party's 2024 nominee for the 20th state house district, is the Democratic nominee for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Tom Cole.

Full candidate profile →

Tom Cole

Republican U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district (since 2003)

Tom Cole, a Republican who chairs the House Appropriations Committee and has represented Oklahoma's 4th congressional district since 2003, seeks reelection in 2026 against Democrat Mitchell Jacob.

Born 1949 · Shreveport, Louisiana

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi899 contracts

Oklahoma's 4th District margin of victory

Cole, 17+ pts		90.3%
Cole, 20+ pts		81.5%
Cole, 23+ pts		72.5%
Cole, 26+ pts		62.5%
Cole, 29+ pts		54.0%
Cole, 32+ pts		44.5%
Cole, 35+ pts		31.5%
Cole, 38+ pts		21.5%
Cole, 41+ pts		10.7%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.8K traded

OK-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		–
Republican 0-5%		6.6%
Republican 5-15%		3.3%
Republican 15-20%		3.7%
Republican 20-25%		27.5%
Republican 25-30%		–
Republican 30-35%		20.5%
Republican 35-40%		4.0%
Republican 40-45%		6.2%
Republican 45%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$35.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Tom Cole: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 97.6% · $639 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.9K contracts traded