House · 3 November 2026

OK-01 House 2026

97.0% RMark Tedford leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 97.8%
Kalshi: 96.5%
Spread: 1.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

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Live News

Recent coverage for OK-01 House.

1 story this week

Top story

MEET THE CANDIDATES: Who is running for office in Oklahoma

He defeated incumbent Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond in an August runoff election to win the nomination.

KOKI Fox2321h agoCroisant

Thomas

Mazzei

Munson

Mark Tedford, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMark Tedford	97.0%		97.8%	96.5%	1.3 pts	–
DJohn Croisant	2.3%		1.6%	3.0%	1.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ok-01/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ok-01">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

John Croisant

Democratic

John Croisant, a Tulsa school board member and Democrat, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Oklahoma's 1st congressional district in 2026 against Republican state representative Mark Tedford.

Full candidate profile →

Mark Tedford

Republican Member of the Oklahoma House of Representatives from the 69th district (since 2022)

Mark Tedford, a Republican insurance agent who represents the 69th district in the Oklahoma House, is his party's nominee for the open 1st congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat John Croisant.

Born 1969 · Lafayette, Louisiana

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.3K contracts

Oklahoma's 1st District margin of victory

Tedford, 3+ pts		90.8%
Tedford, 6+ pts		81.0%
Tedford, 9+ pts		66.0%
Tedford, 12+ pts		49.5%
Tedford, 15+ pts		32.5%
Tedford, 18+ pts		18.5%
Tedford, 21+ pts		8.8%
Tedford, 24+ pts		4.0%
Tedford, 27+ pts		5.6% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.5K traded

OK-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		0.7%
Republican 0-5%		1.7%
Republican 5-10%		–
Republican 10-15%		29.5%
Republican 15-20%		30.0%
Republican 20-25%		8.5%
Republican 25-30%		3.2%
Republican 30%+		2.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$43.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Mark Tedford: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 99.1% · $777 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.1K contracts traded