US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Oklahoma Senate.
Kevin Hern, once a McDonald's franchise owner, has transitioned into a prominent political figure after winning the Republican Senate primary in Oklahoma, largely thanks to Donald Trump's support.
HernHe defeated incumbent Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond in an August runoff election to win the nomination.
Kevin Hern (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. House, representing Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District. He assumed office on November 13, 2018. His current term ends on January 3, 2027.
HernKevin Hern (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. House, representing Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District. He assumed office on November 13, 2018. His current term ends on January 3, 2027.
HernKevin Hern (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. House, representing Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District. He assumed office on November 13, 2018. His current term ends on January 3, 2027.
HernThe Republicans are hopeful of keeping their majority while the Democrats look to flip enough seats to put them on top.
There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.
See whether Oklahoma's 2026 early voters participated in the 2022 and 2024 elections, broken down by party.
Records from October 13, 2026 indicate that Representative Kevin Hern of Oklahoma made a sale of Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN), valued between $348,019 and $995,000, with the transaction dated September 23, 2026 and filed in…
HernN’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas is the Democratic candidate challenging Rep. Kevin Hern for Oklahoma’s U.S. Senate seat.
ThomasN’Kiyla Jasmine Thomas is the Democratic candidate challenging Rep. Kevin Hern, R-OK, in Oklahoma’s U.S. Senate race.
ThomasNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKevin Hern | 97.0% | 97.0% | 97.0% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| DN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 0.6 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Republican U.S. representative for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district since 2018 and former McDonald's franchise owner, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma in 2026.
N'Kiyla "Jasmine" Thomas, a nurse, won Oklahoma's Democratic U.S. Senate runoff in August 2026 and faces Republican congressman Kevin Hern on November 3.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Oklahoma Senate margin of victory
| Hern, 17+ pts | 88.6% | |
| Hern, 19+ pts | 80.5% | |
| Hern, 21+ pts | 71.5% | |
| Hern, 23+ pts | 62.0% | |
| Hern, 25+ pts | 50.5% | |
| Hern, 27+ pts | 38.5% | |
| Hern, 29+ pts | 30.5% | |
| Hern, 31+ pts | 22.5% | |
| Hern, 33+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Hern, 35+ pts | 9.8% | |
| Hern, 37+ pts | 5.8% |
Oklahoma Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.1% | |
| Republican 0-10% | – | |
| Republican 10-15% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 14.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 24.0% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 26.5% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 13.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 7.5% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 4.0% | |
| Republican 45%+ | 2.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Kevin Hern: Counted · bid 96.1% / ask 97.9% · $4.2K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oklahoma U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Kevin Hern: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 97.9% · $17.9K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Kevin Hern
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Oklahoma for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
