House · 3 November 2026

OK-05 House 2026

88.1% RStephanie Bice leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 88.0%
Kalshi: 89.0%
Spread: 1.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −2.5
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

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Recent coverage for OK-05 House.

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What the Week Revealed: Affordability tests party loyalty - Oklahoma Politics Today

Jena Nelson is seen by Democrats as a credible challenger to Rep. Stephanie Bice in Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District (OK-05).

okpoliticstoday.comYesterdayNelson

Stephanie Bice, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RStephanie Bice	88.1%		88.0%	89.0%	1.0 pts	–
DJena Nelson	11.9%		12.0%	10.5%	1.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ok-05/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ok-05">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Jena Nelson

Democratic

Jena Nelson, a Democrat who was Oklahoma Teacher of the Year in 2020, is the Democratic nominee for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Stephanie Bice.

Full candidate profile →

Stephanie Bice

Republican U.S. Representative for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district (since 2021)

Stephanie Bice, a Republican who has represented Oklahoma's 5th congressional district since 2021, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Jena Nelson, a former Oklahoma Teacher of the Year.

Born 1973 · Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi6.5K contracts

Oklahoma's 5th District margin of victory

Bice, 2+ pts		80.5%
Bice, 5+ pts		69.5%
Bice, 8+ pts		57.0%
Bice, 11+ pts		43.5%
Bice, 14+ pts		30.5%
Bice, 17+ pts		19.5%
Bice, 20+ pts		11.5%
Bice, 23+ pts		5.8%
Bice, 26+ pts		6.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.9K traded

OK-05 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		11.1%
Republican 0-5%		11.5%
Republican 5-10%		24.9%
Republican 10-15%		31.5%
Republican 15-20%		16.5%
Republican 20-25%		4.9%
Republican 25-30%		5.0%
Republican 30%+		4.6%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.7K traded

Prices which party wins.

Stephanie Bice: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 89.0% · $15.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi20.0K contracts traded