US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Colorado Senate.
With the Nov. 3 election less than a month away, the Herald Democrat sent questionnaires to candidates running for contested offices.
BaisleyWith the Nov. 3 election less than a month away, the Herald Democrat sent questionnaires to candidates running for contested offices.
BaisleyDan has covered major breaking stories such as mass shootings and wildfires in California, and overseen teams that covered George Santos and the Gilgo Beach serial killings.
BaisleyIn fact, State Sen. Mark Baisleyproved this week that he can still be a problem…for Republicans.
BaisleyDespite that closer-than-expected race, Hickenlooper is heavily favored to cruise past Baisley in the Nov. 3 election.
Baisley
HickenlooperBaisleyA fixture in Colorado politics for more than two decades, Hickenlooper faces a challenge from Republican state Sen. Mark Baisley as he seeks a second six-year Senate term, which he has said will be his last.
HickenlooperBaisleyThe general election is Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026. The incumbent, U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) faces state Sen. Mark Baisley (R) in the race for senate
HickenlooperThe general election is Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026. The incumbent, U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) faces state Sen. Mark Baisley (R) in the race for senate
HickenlooperThe general election is Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026. The incumbent, U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) faces state Sen. Mark Baisley (R) in the race for senate
HickenlooperThe general election is Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026. The incumbent, U.S. Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) faces state Sen. Mark Baisley (R) in the race for senate
HickenlooperJohn Hickenlooper (incumbent) and challenger Mark Baisley debated Colorado’s U.S. Senate race on 9NEWS, with Hickenlooper facing Baisley in a live debate hosted by 9NEWS.
BaisleyThe article notes Mark Baisley as the Republican candidate for Colorado State Senate in District 4 (Chaffee, Custer, Douglas, Fremont, Jefferson, Lake, Park, Teller).
BaisleyBackground: Colorado State Senator representing the 4th Senate District (parts of Douglas, Chaffee, and Fremont counties); former state representative (2019–2023).
BaisleyNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJohn Hickenlooper | 98.8% | 98.8% | 98.8% | 0.0 pts | – | |
| RMark Baisley | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Democratic U.S. senator from Colorado since 2021, former governor and Denver mayor, seeking a second Senate term against Republican Mark Baisley in 2026.
Mark Baisley is a Republican member of the Colorado Senate and his party's nominee against Democratic incumbent John Hickenlooper in Colorado's 2026 U.S. Senate election.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Colorado Senate margin of victory
| Hickenlooper, 8+ pts | 94.5% implied | |
| Hickenlooper, 10+ pts | 96.7% | |
| Hickenlooper, 12+ pts | 95.8% | |
| Hickenlooper, 14+ pts | 93.8% | |
| Hickenlooper, 16+ pts | 86.0% | |
| Hickenlooper, 18+ pts | 80.0% | |
| Hickenlooper, 20+ pts | 77.0% | |
| Hickenlooper, 22+ pts | 68.0% | |
| Hickenlooper, 24+ pts | 57.0% | |
| Hickenlooper, 26+ pts | 47.0% | |
| Hickenlooper, 28+ pts | 37.0% | |
| Hickenlooper, 30+ pts | 27.0% | |
| Hickenlooper, 32+ pts | 18.5% | |
| Hickenlooper, 34+ pts | 11.6% | |
| Hickenlooper, 36+ pts | 6.8% |
Colorado Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Baisley Wins | 2.8% | |
| Hickenlooper 0-5% | 3.9% | |
| Hickenlooper 5-10% | 5.7% | |
| Hickenlooper 10-15% | 7.2% | |
| Hickenlooper 15-20% | 17.0% | |
| Hickenlooper 20-25% | 19.5% | |
| Hickenlooper 25-30% | 23.5% | |
| Hickenlooper 30%+ | 24.5% |
Prices which party wins.
John Hickenlooper: Counted · bid 98.3% / ask 99.4% · $2.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Colorado U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
John Hickenlooper: Counted · bid 98.1% / ask 99.6% · $23.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: John Hickenlooper
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Colorado for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
