US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for California Governor.
Xavier Becerra, a Democratic former congressman, state attorney general and cabinet member for President Joe Biden, is expected to cruise to victory against Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, in the race…
California Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton picks up trash with Juan Naula, founder of "Clean LA with Me", following a press conference
HiltonCalifornia’s GOP gubernatorial candidate on his talks with Ellison, Sarandos and Voight, and his sweeping film tax credit plan. Plus: Bass vs. Raman and what to know at the ballot box
HiltonHiltonOn Point Politics (13 polls, updated Oct 2): Becerra 53.9%, Hilton 36.8% (lead ~17.1 points).
BecerraXavier Becerra, the Democrat candidate for California governor, has not yet committed to specific Medi-Cal changes, including asset limits or monthly fees.
BecerraThe article discusses Xavier Becerra as a potential candidate for California governor, noting that if elected he would become the state’s first elected Latino governor (though not the first person of Latino heritage to…
BecerraAlaska: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), David Bronson (R), Treg Taylor (R), and Bernadette Wilson (R) advanced to the general election from the top-four primary). Incumbent Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is term-limited.
Topic: California 2026 gubernatorial race featuring Xavier Becerra (Democrat) vs. Steve Hilton (Republican).
BecerraThe article reports that Xavier Becerra holds a 17-point lead over Steve Hilton in the California gubernatorial race, according to Sandiegored. It highlights Becerra as the leading candidate in this race.
BecerraTags: British Prime Minister California California Governor Chad Bianco colton DMV Gavin Newsom Governor Governor Gavin Newsom Governors Race La Cadena Events Hall Republican san bernardino Steve Hilton taxes town hall
HiltonSteve Hilton, the Republican contender for California governor, rolled out a plan Wednesday to revive Hollywood production that includes increased tax credits and state-backed financing for studio repairs.
HiltonCalifornia’s Nov. 3 election pulls two candidates to the governor’s seat: Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton.
HiltonABC10 interviews Republican California governor candidate Steve Hilton on his affordability agenda, including tax cuts, $3 gas, lower bills and more housing
HiltonResumen: Las encuestas sitúan al demócrata Xavier Becerra con una clara ventaja para la gobernación de California en 2026, frente al republicano Steve Hilton.
BecerraThe article profiles Xavier Becerra as the leading candidate to become California’s governor, highlighting his Latino heritage and steady, insider-style rise rather than dramatic activism.
BecerraNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXavier Becerra | 95.9% | 96.0% | 95.8% | 0.2 pts | – | |
| RSteve Hilton | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 0.3 pts | – | |
| Tom Steyer | 0.2% Polymarket only |
0.2% | – | – | – | |
| Rick Caruso | 0.1% implied |
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| Alex Padilla | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – | |
| Katie Porter | 0.1% implied |
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| Antonio Villaraigosa | 0.1% implied |
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| Stephen Cloobeck | 0.1% implied |
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| Butch Ware | 0.1% implied |
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| Betty Yee | 0.1% implied |
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| Toni Atkins | 0.1% implied |
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| Kyle Langford | 0.1% implied |
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| Chad Bianco | 0.1% implied |
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| Eleni Kounalakis | 0.1% implied |
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| Daniel Mercuri | 0.1% implied |
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| Tony Thurmond | 0.1% implied |
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| Michael Younger | 0.1% implied |
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| Leo Zacky | 0.1% implied |
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| Nicole Shanahan | 0.1% implied |
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| Eric Swalwell | 0.1% implied |
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| Kamala Harris | 0.1% implied |
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| Matt Mahan | 0.1% implied |
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| Elaine Culotti | 0.1% implied |
– | – | – | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Steve Hilton, a British-born commentator, former strategy director for UK prime minister David Cameron and former Fox News host, is the Republican nominee for governor of California in 2026.
Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who served as US secretary of health and human services from 2021 to 2025, faces Republican Steve Hilton for governor of California in 2026.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
California Governor margin of victory
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 94.5% | |
| Democrats, 12+ pts | 92.5% | |
| Democrats, 15+ pts | 81.5% | |
| Democrats, 18+ pts | 73.5% | |
| Democrats, 21+ pts | 64.0% | |
| Democrats, 24+ pts | 43.5% | |
| Democrats, 27+ pts | – | |
| Democrats, 30+ pts | 24.0% | |
| Democrats, 33+ pts | 12.0% | |
| Democrats, 36+ pts | 5.5% |
California Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Hilton Wins | 0.8% | |
| Becerra 0-10% | 1.2% | |
| Becerra 10-15% | 5.3% | |
| Becerra 15-20% | 21.0% | |
| Becerra 20-25% | 31.5% | |
| Becerra 25-30% | 31.9% | |
| Becerra 30-35% | 5.4% | |
| Becerra 35-40% | 4.3% | |
| Becerra 40%+ | 0.1% |
Prices which candidate wins.
Xavier Becerra: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 96.1% · $38.3K within 5 pts
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which candidate wins.
Xavier Becerra: Counted · bid 95.8% / ask 95.9% · $290.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Xavier Becerra
If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
