nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026

New York Governor 2026

94.5% DKathy Hochul leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.1%
Kalshi
94.4%
Spread
0.7 pts
24h
–
7 days
−1.1
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for New York Governor.

  1. Hochul gets boost from Bloomberg-backed charter school super PAC in NY governor’s race

    The other five races cover suburban swing seats on Long Island, in the Hudson Valley and in the Capital Region, including: incumbent Monica Martinez in Suffolk County, Rory Lancman in Nassau County’s North Shore, Lisa…

    New York PostHochul
  2. Mamdani releases video touting Hochul, blasting Blakeman

    The video, released more than a week before early voting begins in New York, is the first tangible support the democratic socialist mayor has shown for Hochul’s reelection bid since his February endorsement.

    PoliticoPingreeBlakeman
  3. Kathy Hochul chose kids over the teachers union

    Last Friday, Governor Kathy Hochul announced that New York will officially opt in to the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit program (FSTC), giving millions of New Yorkers the ability to make tax-deductible contributions…

    Washington PostHochul
  4. What to know about the New York governor’s race : Investigative Post

    Kathy Hochul and Bruce Blakeman are locked in an expensive: and surprisingly competitive: contest.

    investigativepost.orgHochul
  5. Hochul Had to Return Millions. She Found a Workaround.

    The governor’s campaign encouraged donors to redirect their refunds to the state party, which later transferred $10 million to her campaign.

    nysfocus.comHochul
More coverage 8
  1. Hochul, Blakeman talk debate performance after clash on NY1

    Kathy Hochul, the New York governor and incumbent, addressed voters after a contentious debate with Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman.

    ny1.comHochul
  2. New York gubernatorial debate covers energy, police, and Cornell

    ALBANY, N.Y. (NEXSTAR): Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman disagreed over household bills, energy supply, and public safety during their only debate in the race for…

    WTENBlakeman
  3. NY governor's race: Hochul, Blakeman spar in debate as Mamdani takes spotlight

    "He says that he's going to bring Trump-style leadership to Albany," Hochul said. "You support every single thing that Donald Trump does."

    ABC7 New YorkBlakemanHochul
  4. What to Know About the New York Governor’s Race

    Kathy Hochul and Bruce Blakeman are locked in an expensive: and surprisingly competitive: race.

    nysfocus.comBlakeman
  5. NY governor debate: Hochul, Blakeman clash on Trump policies and more

    The Source: This article was written with remarks made by Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman during their only televised debate in the 2026 New York governor's race.

    WNYWBlakemanHochul
  6. Fact-checking Hochul-Blakeman NY gov debate: ICE, gas wells, and fired corrections officers

    Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman face off during a gubernatorial debate. 3

    New York PostBlakeman
  7. Hochul keeps Trump center stage as Blakeman softens praise in lone governor debate over ICE, crime and affordability

    Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman faced off in New York’s only gubernatorial debate ahead of the November election.

    AM New YorkHochul
  8. Hochul, Blakeman clash over immigration, economy in New York governor's race debate - CBS New York

    Kathy Hochul and Bruce Blakeman sparred in their first and only New York governor’s debate, focusing on affordability, immigration, and energy policy.

    CBS NewsHochul

Kathy Hochul, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DKathy Hochul 94.5% 95.1% 94.4% 0.7 pts –
RBruce Blakeman 5.1% 4.9% 5.1% 0.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Bruce Blakeman

Bruce Blakeman

Republican County Executive of Nassau County, New York (since 2022)

Bruce Blakeman, a Republican attorney who has been Nassau County executive since 2022, is the Republican and Conservative nominee for governor of New York in 2026.

Born 1955 · Valley Stream, New York
Kathy Hochul

Kathy Hochul

Democratic Governor of New York (since 2021)

Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who became New York's first female governor in 2021 and won a full term in 2022, is seeking reelection in 2026 against Republican Bruce Blakeman.

Born 1958 · Buffalo, New York

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi30.9K contracts

New York Governor margin of victory

Hochul, 4+ pts
93.5%
Hochul, 7+ pts
84.5%
Hochul, 10+ pts
81.0%
Hochul, 13+ pts
–
Hochul, 16+ pts
38.0%
Hochul, 19+ pts
21.5%
Hochul, 22+ pts
10.9%
Hochul, 25+ pts
4.4%
Hochul, 28+ pts
3.7%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$9.1K traded

New York Governor Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
2.5%
Democrat 0-5%
4.8%
Democrat 5-10%
15.5%
Democrat 10-15%
20.5%
Democrat 15-20%
25.5%
Democrat 20-25%
17.5%
Democrat 25-30%
5.2%
Democrat 30-35%
3.6%
Democrat 35%+
4.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$243.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Kathy Hochul: Counted · bid 94.7% / ask 95.5% · $17.4K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.1M contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Kathy Hochul: Counted · bid 94.2% / ask 94.7% · $157.8K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Kathy Hochul

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New York pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in New York

  1. NY-01 HouseR86%
  2. NY-02 HouseR86%
  3. NY-03 HouseD91%
  4. NY-04 HouseD92%
  5. NY-05 HouseD98%
  6. NY-06 HouseD98%
  7. NY-07 HouseD97%
  8. NY-08 HouseD98%