US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-21 House.
Anthony Constantino, who is running in New York’s 21st Congressional District, made the remark in an interview with journalist Jake Lahut published Thursday in Lahut’s newsletter, The Hut.
WATERTOWN, New York (WWNY) - With election day now less than three weeks away, The Democratic candidate for New York’s 21st congressional district is pushing hard for disaffected supporters of President Trump to vote…
Cait Conley delivered the jaw-dropping burn this week, becoming the second Democratic congressional candidate to publicly distance themselves from Hochul ahead of next month’s midterms.
Republican Anthony Constantino (left) and Democrat Blake Gendebien
State Democratic Party chairman Jay Jacobs, a top Hochul ally, gave Gendebien a pass for not publicly backing the governor. He said Gendebien needs to attract Republican votes to pull off an upset.
Florida’s 27th District, Eliott Rodriguez: Rodriguez is known to millions as a former local news anchor. He is up against Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who has distanced herself from Trump’s deportation policies.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAnthony Constantino | 75.1% | 74.5% | 75.5% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| DBlake Gendebien | 24.9% | 24.5% | 25.5% | 1.0 pts | – |
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Anthony Constantino, a Republican businessman, is his party's nominee for the open seat in New York's 21st congressional district in 2026 against Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien.
Blake Gendebien, a Democratic dairy farmer, is his party's nominee for the open seat in New York's 21st congressional district in 2026 against Republican businessman Anthony Constantino.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 21st District margin of victory
| Constantino, 1+ pts | 74.0% | |
| Constantino, 3+ pts | 67.0% | |
| Constantino, 6+ pts | 51.0% | |
| Constantino, 9+ pts | 32.0% implied | |
| Constantino, 12+ pts | 19.5% | |
| Constantino, 15+ pts | 12.8% | |
| Constantino, 18+ pts | 6.5% | |
| Constantino, 21+ pts | 4.5% | |
| Constantino, 24+ pts | 5.5% implied |
NY-21 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 21%+ | 4.5% | |
| Republican 18-21% | 1.4% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 1.4% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 2.8% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 3.8% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 23.5% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 21.0% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 17.5% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 15.5% | |
| Democrat 3%+ | 13.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Anthony Constantino: Counted · bid 74.0% / ask 75.0% · $26.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Anthony Constantino: Counted · bid 75.0% / ask 76.0% · $38.0K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Anthony Constantino
If the House member sworn in for NY-21 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
