House · 3 November 2026

NY-03 House 2026

90.8% DTom Suozzi leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 89.5%
Kalshi: 91.0%
Spread: 1.6 pts
24h: –
7 days: +2.8
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Tom Suozzi, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DTom Suozzi	90.8%		89.5%	91.0%	1.4 pts	–
RMike LiPetri	9.2%		10.5%	8.9%	1.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Mike LiPetri

Republican

Mike LiPetri, a Republican attorney who represented the 9th district in the New York State Assembly from 2019 to 2021, faces Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi for New York's 3rd congressional district in 2026.

Born 1990 · New York City, New York

Full candidate profile →

Tom Suozzi

Democratic U.S. Representative for New York's 3rd congressional district (since 2024)

Tom Suozzi, a Democrat who has represented New York's 3rd congressional district since 2024 and previously from 2017 to 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Mike LiPetri, a former state assemblyman.

Born 1962 · Glen Cove, New York

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi781 contracts

New York's 3rd District margin of victory

Yes

9.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi2.6K contracts

New York's 3rd District margin of victory

Suozzi, 2+ pts		79.5%
Suozzi, 5+ pts		66.5%
Suozzi, 8+ pts		49.5%
Suozzi, 11+ pts		38.5%
Suozzi, 14+ pts		27.0%
Suozzi, 17+ pts		13.6%
Suozzi, 20+ pts		5.8%
Suozzi, 23+ pts		6.6% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$19.6K traded

NY-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 5%+		4.8%
Republican 0-5%		–
Democrat 0-5%		4.8%
Democrat 5-10%		18.0%
Democrat 10-15%		25.0%
Democrat 15-20%		27.5%
Democrat 20-25%		3.6%
Democrat 25%+		4.6%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$47.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Tom Suozzi: Counted · bid 89.0% / ask 90.0% · $5.0K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi197.8K contracts traded