House · 3 November 2026

NY-11 House 2026

95.0% RNicole Malliotakis leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.1%
Kalshi: 94.6%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +1.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Nicole Malliotakis, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RNicole Malliotakis	95.0%		95.1%	94.6%	0.5 pts	–
DMichael DeCillis	4.5%		4.5%	4.8%	0.3 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Michael DeCillis

Democratic

Michael DeCillis, a retired police officer who ran for the seat in 2018 and 2022, is the Democratic nominee for New York's 11th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Nicole Malliotakis.

Full candidate profile →

Nicole Malliotakis

Republican U.S. Representative for New York's 11th congressional district (since 2021)

Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican who has represented New York's 11th congressional district since 2021, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Michael DeCillis, a retired police officer who also ran for the seat in 2018 and 2022.

Born 1980 · Manhattan, New York City

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.2K contracts

New York's 11th District margin of victory

Malliotakis, 6+ pts		82.5%
Malliotakis, 9+ pts		71.0%
Malliotakis, 12+ pts		56.5%
Malliotakis, 15+ pts		41.5%
Malliotakis, 18+ pts		28.5%
Malliotakis, 21+ pts		17.5%
Malliotakis, 24+ pts		8.6%
Malliotakis, 27+ pts		4.3%
Malliotakis, 30+ pts		6.0% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.4K traded

NY-11 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		3.6%
Republican 0-5%		4.1%
Republican 5-10%		19.0%
Republican 10-15%		26.5%
Republican 15-20%		27.5%
Republican 20-25%		20.4%
Republican 25-30%		2.9%
Republican 30%+		3.8%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$40.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Nicole Malliotakis: Counted · bid 94.6% / ask 95.6% · $5.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi28.4K contracts traded