Top story
Victory Institute to honor Nancy Pelosi at D.C. conference
The Los Angeles Blade profiles Chris Gallant, a openly gay Democrat running for New York’s 1st Congressional District (NY-01), which covers Nassau and Suffolk Counties.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
NY-01 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 84.5%
- Kalshi
- 86.5%
- Spread
- 2.0 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +0.2
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for NY-01 House.
-
Texas GOP looks to investigate trans group after mysterious texts sent to Republican voters
The article reports on the Texas GOP exploring a probe into a trans-support group after mysterious text messages were sent to Republican voters.
-
Republicans are "freaking out" over Texas possibly going blue, GOP lawmaker divulges
The article from LGBTQ Nation reports that Texas politics are unsettled by a potential blue shift in the U.S. Senate race.
-
Trump admin demands medical organizations explain why they support for trans care
The user query focuses on "Chris Gallant" in relation to NY-01 House (New York’s 1st congressional district) and likely his relevance to political coverage or candidacy.
-
The married lesbian couple running a joint campaign to unseat Idaho's most powerful GOP lawmakers
Topic: Darline Graham Nordone and her political activity as part of a married lesbian couple campaigning to challenge powerful Idaho GOP lawmakers (as covered by LGBTQ Nation).
No story this week names this candidate.
Nick LaLota, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RNick LaLota | 85.7% | 84.5% | 86.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| DChris Gallant | 14.5% | 15.5% | 13.5% | 2.0 pts | – |
Share this race
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
Post on X
X opens with your text; you can edit it there before posting.
Embed the live card
Candidates & Background
Chris Gallant
Democratic
Chris Gallant, a Democrat and air traffic controller, is his party's nominee for New York's 1st congressional district in 2026, facing Republican incumbent Nick LaLota in the November general election.
Nick LaLota
Republican U.S. Representative for New York's 1st congressional district (since 2023)
Nick LaLota, a Republican and Navy veteran who has represented New York's 1st congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Chris Gallant, an air traffic controller.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi5.8K contracts
New York's 1st District margin of victory
| LaLota, 1+ pts | 86.6% | |
| LaLota, 3+ pts | 81.5% | |
| LaLota, 6+ pts | 71.0% | |
| LaLota, 9+ pts | 56.0% | |
| LaLota, 12+ pts | 35.5% | |
| LaLota, 15+ pts | 24.0% | |
| LaLota, 18+ pts | 12.8% | |
| LaLota, 21+ pts | 5.5% |
Kalshi537 contracts
New York's 1st District margin of victory
| Gallant, 3+ pts | 4.2% | |
| Gallant, 6+ pts | 5.9% implied |
Polymarket$26.6K traded
NY-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 18%+ | 8.3% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 7.3% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 11.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 12.0% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 13.5% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 17.8% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 20.5% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 16.3% | |
| Democrat 3-6% | 2.1% | |
| Democrat 6%+ | 1.5% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$51.5K traded
Prices which party wins.
Nick LaLota: Counted · bid 84.0% / ask 85.0% · $39.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi197.0K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Nick LaLota: Counted · bid 86.0% / ask 87.0% · $54.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Nick LaLota
If the House member sworn in for NY-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in New York
- New York GovernorD95%
- NY-02 HouseR86%
- NY-03 HouseD91%
- NY-04 HouseD92%
- NY-05 HouseD98%
- NY-06 HouseD98%
- NY-07 HouseD97%
- NY-08 HouseD98%