US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-24 House.
Alissa Ellman, the Democratic challenger in New York’s 24th Congressional District, is the target of significant support from a super PAC backing her against Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney.
The piece profiles Alissa Ellman, the Democratic challenger for New York’s 24th Congressional District, running against incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney.
Representatives Yassamin Ansari (AZ-03) and Claudia Tenney (NY-24) introduced the bipartisan Internet Reach and Access Now (IRAN) Act. The bill aims to strengthen U.S.
The article highlights the race for New York’s 25th Congressional District (not NY-18). It notes incumbent Rep. Joe Morelle facing challenger Virginia McIntyre with Election Day about three weeks away.
Representative Claudia Tenney (NY-24) has introduced the House companion to the Medicare Home Health Payment Integrity and Protection Act of 2026 (SB 5250).
TenneyThe piece is a candidate profile for Alissa Ellman, the Democratic challenger for New York’s 24th Congressional District.
The piece highlights Democratic candidate Alissa Ellman, running for New York’s 24th Congressional District, challenging incumbent Rep. Claudia Tenney.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RClaudia Tenney | 96.4% | 96.4% | 96.7% | 0.3 pts | – | |
| DAlissa Ellman | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 0.3 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Alissa Ellman, a Democrat and former program support assistant at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, challenges Republican incumbent Claudia Tenney for New York's 24th congressional district in 2026.
Claudia Tenney, a Republican who has represented New York's 24th congressional district since 2023 after earlier serving the 22nd district, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Alissa Ellman.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 24th District margin of victory
| Tenney, 9+ pts | 92.0% | |
| Tenney, 12+ pts | 84.5% | |
| Tenney, 15+ pts | 74.0% | |
| Tenney, 18+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Tenney, 21+ pts | 43.5% | |
| Tenney, 24+ pts | 26.5% | |
| Tenney, 27+ pts | 16.5% | |
| Tenney, 30+ pts | 7.9% | |
| Tenney, 33+ pts | 4.1% |
NY-24 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.8% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.0% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 6.9% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 23.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 27.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 19.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 14.0% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 9.0% | |
| Republican 35%+ | 4.0% |
Prices which party wins.
Claudia Tenney: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 96.5% · $8.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Claudia Tenney: Counted · bid 96.2% / ask 97.2% · $1.5K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Claudia Tenney
If the House member sworn in for NY-24 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
