US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for NY-02 House.
The National Police Association (NPA) supports the Fight Against Fentanyl Act (H.R. 10678), introduced by Rep. Tom Kean (NJ-07) and co-sponsored by Rep. Andrew Garbarino (NY-02), along with Reps.
A press release reports that Representative Andrew Garbarino (NY-02) and colleagues introduced legislation to expand funding for fentanyl testing kits.
GarbarinoThis article discusses FCC filings related to U.S. drone oversight, noting that a section 1709 list mentions Autel Robotics alongside DJI, but the FCC’s sealed Pentagon letters did not rely on those letters to justify…
The article examines campaign contributions from major ICE federal contractors, specifically GEO Group and CoreCivic, which have maxed out at $10,000 to Rep.
GarbarinoNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAndrew Garbarino | 86.0% | 84.5% | 86.5% | 2.0 pts | – | |
| DPatrick Halpin | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 0.0 pts | – |
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Andrew Garbarino, a Republican who has represented New York's 2nd congressional district since 2021 and chairs the House Homeland Security Committee, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Patrick Halpin, a former Suffolk County executive.
Patrick Halpin, a Democrat who served as Suffolk County executive from 1988 to 1991, is his party's nominee for New York's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Andrew Garbarino.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
New York's 2nd District margin of victory
| Garbarino, 1+ pts | 90.3% | |
| Garbarino, 4+ pts | 84.0% | |
| Garbarino, 7+ pts | 74.5% | |
| Garbarino, 10+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Garbarino, 13+ pts | 46.0% | |
| Garbarino, 16+ pts | 31.5% | |
| Garbarino, 19+ pts | 19.5% | |
| Garbarino, 22+ pts | 9.8% |
NY-02 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 21%+ | 4.0% | |
| Republican 18-21% | 9.6% | |
| Republican 15-18% | – | |
| Republican 12-15% | 5.6% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 9.0% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 22.5% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 23.0% | |
| Republican 0-3% | – | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 12.5% | |
| Democrat 3%+ | 3.8% |
Prices which party wins.
Andrew Garbarino: Counted · bid 84.0% / ask 85.0% · $7.8K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Andrew Garbarino: Counted · bid 86.0% / ask 87.0% · $25.7K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Andrew Garbarino
If the House member sworn in for NY-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
