nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026

Oregon Governor 2026

75.5% DTina Kotek leads TruthIndex™Likely D
Polymarket
75.5%
Kalshi
75.5%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−2.0
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for Oregon Governor.

  1. Beavers and Evergreens: Key Oregon and Washington Races

    Gov. Tina Kotek speaks at a gathering of business leaders and public officials at the Moda Center, on Monday, Dec. 11, 2023.

    Daily KosPerezConroyKotek
  2. Kotek, Drazan call for more time on Salem, Portland school closures

    Portland Public Schools, Oregon's largest district, heard similar demands during a board meeting about two potential school closure scenarios. Hundreds of parents and community members filed into a boardroom Oct. 6.

    Statesman JournalDrazan
  3. Carrie Brownstein endorses Tina Kotek in the Oregon governor's race

    Carrie Brownstein of Sleater-Kinney performs at Revolution Hall.Allison Barr/The Oregonian

    OregonianKotekPingree
  4. Oregon Midterm Elections: Prediction Market Leaders Today

    The table below shows the leading candidate in each race, the current odds on Kalshi and whether they are an incumbent.

    ForbesKotekSmithDrazan
  5. Oregon governor's race tightens as GOP eyes major upset

    Oregon voters join a panel discussion to share their views on the tightening gubernatorial race between Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan, discussing key issues from business to student life.

    Fox NewsDrazan
More coverage 10
  1. Election 2026: Kotek, Drazan focus on development at final debate in Bend for Oregon governor’s race | News

    Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek and now-state Sen. Christine Drazan, R-Canby, participated in a debate in Bend on Tuesday, Oct. 13.

    tillamookheadlightherald.comKotekDrazan
  2. Election 2026: East Oregonian’s guide to the November election

    Kotek, Drazan focus on development at final debate in Bend for Oregon governor’s race

    La Grande ObserverDrazanSmith
  3. Kotek, Drazan square off in final debate of governor’s race

    In the final Oregon governor debate, Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Republican state Sen. Christine Drazan pressed contrasts on leadership and policy.

    Oregon Public BroadcastingDrazanKotekAlso in KHEC
  4. Tina Kotek and Christine Drazan enter final stretch of close Oregon governor's race

    Christine Drazan is in a tight Oregon governor race against incumbent Tina Kotek. Polls have swung since the campaign began, with Drazan leading early but Kotek gaining ground to a near-toss-up in recent surveys.

    KGWDrazanKotek
  5. Oregon governor issues executive order intended to protect access to healthcare

    SALEM, Ore. – In response to federal changes to the U.S. healthcare system, Oregon Governor Tina Kotek has issued an executive order that is intended to protect access to healthcare in Oregon.

    applevalleynewsnow.comKotek
  6. Oregon Gubernatorial Debate: Kotek and Drazan's Plans

    Debate focus: Drazan pressed for changes to the corporate activity tax, the estate tax, and simpler regulations aimed at easing business operations.

    salembusinessjournal.orgDrazan
  7. Kotek, Drazan focus on development at final debate in Bend for Oregon governor’s race

    (Oregon Capital Chronicle): Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek and state Sen. Christine Drazan, R-Canby, spent their final televised debate for the 2026 Oregon

    KOINKotek
  8. What Kotek, Drazan said in final 2026 Oregon governor debate

    Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek and Sen. Christine Drazan, R-Canby, clashed at their Oct. 13 debate in Bend, the last candidate matchup scheduled ahead of the Nov. 3 gubernatorial election.

    Statesman JournalKotek
  9. Kotek, Drazan push for transparency as Portland and Salem-Keizer weigh school closures

    Drazan, a gubernatorial candidate, joined Portland’s families in urging school district leaders to protect neighborhood schools from closures.

    KATU.comDrazan
  10. What Kotek, Drazan said in final Oregon governor debate | Elections

    Promising an overhaul of land-use rules and tougher action with local governments to speed up permits and boost development, arguing Kotek has failed on housing despite bipartisan bills.

    Central Oregon DailyDrazan

Tina Kotek, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DTina Kotek 75.5% 75.5% 75.5% 0.0 pts –
RChristine Drazan 23.6% 23.5% 24.5% 1.0 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Christine Drazan

Christine Drazan

Republican Member of the Oregon State Senate from the 26th district (since 2025)

Christine Drazan, an Oregon Republican state senator and former House minority leader, is again her party's nominee for governor in 2026, in a rematch with Democratic Governor Tina Kotek.

Born 1972 · Klamath Falls, Oregon
Tina Kotek

Tina Kotek

Democratic Governor of Oregon (since 2023)

Democratic governor of Oregon since 2023 and former speaker of the Oregon House, seeking a second term in 2026 in a rematch with Republican Christine Drazan.

Born 1966 · York, Pennsylvania

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi21.0K contracts

Oregon Governor margin of victory

Kotek, 2+ pts
65.0%
Kotek, 5+ pts
45.0%
Kotek, 8+ pts
25.0%
Kotek, 11+ pts
14.0%
Kotek, 14+ pts
6.7%
Kotek, 17+ pts
7.1%
implied
Kotek, 20+ pts
4.0%
implied
Kotek, 23+ pts
3.9%
implied
Kotek, 26+ pts
3.9%
implied
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.1K traded

Oregon Governor Election Margin of Victory

Drazan 6%+
8.5%
Drazan 3-6%
8.2%
Drazan 0-3%
9.4%
Kotek 0-3%
10.9%
Kotek 3-6%
12.2%
Kotek 6-9%
18.6%
Kotek 9-12%
17.5%
Kotek 12-15%
12.5%
Kotek 15-18%
3.6%
Kotek 18%+
3.0%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$93.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Tina Kotek: Counted · bid 75.0% / ask 76.0% · $37.1K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi354.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Tina Kotek: Counted · bid 75.0% / ask 76.0% · $9.0K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Tina Kotek

If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Oregon pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Oregon

  1. Oregon SenateD98%
  2. OR-01 HouseD97%
  3. OR-02 HouseR96%
  4. OR-03 HouseD96%
  5. OR-04 HouseD95%
  6. OR-05 HouseD95%
  7. OR-06 HouseD96%