Top story
Aylesbury Vale planning round-up: Aylesbury bedsits could become house share
The Aylesbury Vale planning roundup reports several proposals to convert bedsits into HMOs (houses in multiple occupation) in the Aylesbury area.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
OR-03 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.6%
- Kalshi
- 96.6%
- Spread
- 1.3 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −0.1
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for OR-03 House.
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Estacada man gets 35-year sentence in abuse of three girls he babysat
The article reports that Michael Paul Ayles, not Loran Ayles, was sentenced to 35 years in prison by Multnomah County Circuit Court (Oct. 14) after being convicted of sex crimes involving three girls he babysat.
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Estacada babysitter sentenced for sexually abusing girls as young as 4 years old
Michael Paul Ayles, an Estacada man, was sentenced to 35 years in prison for sexually abusing three young girls while babysitting them.
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Multnomah County Man Sentenced To Prison For Sexually Abusing Three Girls
Michael Ayles, not Loran Ayles, was sentenced by Multnomah County Circuit Court Judge Celia Howes to 35 years in prison after being convicted of First-Degree Sodomy and eight counts of First-Degree Sex Abuse with a…
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Multnomah County man sentenced to 35 years for sexually abusing three girls
A Multnomah County man, Michael Paul Ayles, was sentenced to 35 years in prison after being convicted of sexually abusing three sisters, some as young as 4 when the abuse began.
No story this week names this candidate.
Maxine Dexter, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DMaxine Dexter | 96.0% | 95.6% | 96.6% | 1.0 pts | – | |
| RLoran Ayles | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.3 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Loran Ayles
Republican
Loran Ayles, a Republican heavy equipment operator, is the Republican nominee for Oregon's 3rd congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Maxine Dexter in the November general election.
Maxine Dexter
Democratic U.S. Representative for Oregon's 3rd congressional district (since 2025)
Maxine Dexter, a Democratic physician who has represented Oregon's 3rd congressional district since 2025, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Loran Ayles, a heavy equipment operator.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi6.9K contracts
Oregon's 3rd District margin of victory
| Dexter, 38+ pts | 96.6% | |
| Dexter, 41+ pts | 95.4% | |
| Dexter, 44+ pts | 93.0% | |
| Dexter, 47+ pts | 86.4% | |
| Dexter, 50+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Dexter, 53+ pts | 65.5% | |
| Dexter, 56+ pts | 50.0% | |
| Dexter, 59+ pts | 34.5% | |
| Dexter, 62+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Dexter, 65+ pts | 10.8% |
Polymarket$19.0K traded
OR-03 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 0.1% | |
| Democrat 0-25% | 0.3% | |
| Democrat 25-35% | 0.5% | |
| Democrat 35-40% | 0.7% | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 10.1% | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 18.5% | |
| Democrat 50-55% | – | |
| Democrat 55-60% | 21.0% | |
| Democrat 60-65% | 11.0% | |
| Democrat 65%+ | 5.8% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$20.9K traded
Prices which party wins.
Maxine Dexter: Counted · bid 94.4% / ask 96.8% · $761 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi565 contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Maxine Dexter: Counted · bid 93.9% / ask 99.3% · $466 within 5 pts
Contract shown: Maxine Dexter
If the House member sworn in for OR-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Oregon
- Oregon SenateD98%
- Oregon GovernorD76%
- OR-01 HouseD97%
- OR-02 HouseR96%
- OR-04 HouseD95%
- OR-05 HouseD95%
- OR-06 HouseD96%