nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

OR-06 House 2026

96.2% DAndrea Salinas leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
95.8%
Kalshi
96.8%
Spread
1.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.3
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for OR-06 House.

  1. 4 dead in shooting at Silver Rail Elementary school; shooter dead

    The article reports a shooting at Silver Rail Elementary in Bend, resulting in four deaths, including the shooter.

    KMTRSalinas
  2. Sen. Markey, Leader Schumer, Reps. Matsui, Menendez, Meng Lead Colleagues in Demanding Trump FCC Withdraw Proposal to Undermine E-Rate Program

    Topic: A coalition of prominent House Democrats led by Sen. Ed Markey and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, including Rep.

    markey.senate.govOfficialUnderwoodCastorCourtneyCostaHayesCleaverFosterMcCollumBalintSalinas
  3. Congresistas temen que ICE compre el centro de detención de Tacoma

    The article reports that members of Congress are concerned about ICE purchasing the Tacoma detention center.

    prensamercosur.orgRandallSalinasSmith
  4. National Real Estate Advisors Celebrates Grand Opening of Dupont Circle Housing Project

    National Real Estate Advisors marked the grand opening of Aviator House in Dupont Circle, Washington, DC.

    connectcre.comRuss
  5. MANCHESTER ENTREPRENEUR WINS TOP ACCOLADES FROM THE WORLD'S LEADING SPIRITS COMPETITION

    David Howarth, founder of Manchester-based House of Rum, led the brand to win top honors at the International Spirits Challenge in London, including “Best Rum in the World” and Independent Bottler of the Year 2026.

    barmagazine.co.ukRuss
More coverage 4
  1. Unveiling 330 De Neve Drive: A Sauvignon Inside the Grand Estate of Entertainment Mogul H. Russell Smith

    330 De Neve Drive is a 17,000-square-foot Bel Air estate, historically tied to H. Russell Smith, co-founder of United Artists and influential Hollywood figure.

    ny.gn.fosun.comRuss
  2. UNCOVERED: The Surprising Details Behind Dave Portnoy's Nantucket House

    The article explores Dave Portnoy’s Nantucket house, a 7,500-square-foot luxury mansion in Siasconset, Nantucket, MA.

    clientconnect.assurant.comRuss
  3. Reps. Castro, Ciscomani, Espaillat Renew Push to Honor Hispanic-Serving Institutions

    The press release from Rep. Joaquin Castro and fellow cosponsors highlights renewed congressional efforts to recognize and support Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSIs).

    castro.house.govOfficialSalinasMejia
  4. Public comment closes on Roadless Rule repeal with more than 1 million submissions | In Print

    Representative Andrea Salinas (OR-06) led a bipartisan coalition of 164 members of Congress to request an extension for public comment on the Roadless Rule repeal.

    montanakaimin.comSalinas

Andrea Salinas, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DAndrea Salinas 96.2% 95.8% 96.8% 1.0 pts –
RDavid Russ 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 0.6 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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Candidates & Background

Andrea Salinas

Andrea Salinas

Democratic U.S. Representative for Oregon's 6th congressional district (since 2023)

Andrea Salinas, a Democrat who has represented Oregon's 6th congressional district since 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican David Russ, a former mayor of Dundee.

Born 1969 · San Mateo, California

David Russ

Republican

David Russ, a Republican former mayor of Dundee who ran for Oregon's 6th congressional district in 2022 and 2024, is the party's 2026 nominee against Democratic incumbent Andrea Salinas.

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.7K contracts

Oregon's 6th District margin of victory

Salinas, 7+ pts
96.9%
Salinas, 10+ pts
95.7%
Salinas, 13+ pts
92.1%
Salinas, 16+ pts
83.5%
Salinas, 19+ pts
72.5%
Salinas, 22+ pts
58.5%
Salinas, 25+ pts
42.5%
Salinas, 28+ pts
27.5%
Salinas, 31+ pts
16.0%
Salinas, 34+ pts
7.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$31.8K traded

OR-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.1%
implied
Democrat 0-5%
0.3%
Democrat 5-10%
4.0%
Democrat 10-15%
5.7%
Democrat 15-20%
29.0%
Democrat 20-25%
32.0%
Democrat 25-30%
23.3%
Democrat 30-35%
9.8%
Democrat 35%+
3.8%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$26.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Andrea Salinas: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 97.2% · $701 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi40.7K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Andrea Salinas: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 98.3% · $474 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Andrea Salinas

If the House member sworn in for OR-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Oregon

  1. Oregon SenateD98%
  2. Oregon GovernorD76%
  3. OR-01 HouseD97%
  4. OR-02 HouseR96%
  5. OR-03 HouseD96%
  6. OR-04 HouseD95%
  7. OR-05 HouseD95%