Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

OR-01 House 2026

97.1% DSuzanne Bonamici leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.2%
Kalshi
98.2%
Spread
1.9 pts
24h
–
7 days
−0.5
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for OR-01 House.

Top story

Frank Lloyd Wright Usonian Home in Michigan

The article highlights the Frank Lloyd Wright Usonian home in The Acres, Kalamazoo, Michigan: the Samuel and Dorothy Eppstein residence: now restored and listed for $2.1 million.

cat9productions.comKahl
  1. Kommentar: Ein Wunder von Gorleben

    The piece titled "Kommentar: Ein Wunder von Gorleben" from EJZ (by editor Judith Kahle) offers a reflective opinion about a local development described as a "miracle" in Gorleben.

    ejz.deKahl
  2. Inside House K: A Stunning Concrete & Nature-Integrated Home in Vietnam by HGAA (2026)

    The article presents House K, a residential project by HGAA in Nghệ An, Vietnam, notable for its seamless fusion of concrete architecture with nature.

    ggcea.orgKahl
  3. Mächtiges Werkzeug für plattdeutsche Dichter

    The Aschendorff Verlag Münster presented Kahls platdüütske Wäöderbook with author Dr. Klaus-Werner Kahl on July 21 in Münster.

    wirin.deKahl
  4. Rare Barbie dolls' house set to fetch three-figure fee at Staffordshire auction

    A rare Barbie Dream House crafted from cardboard is a top lot at a Staffordshire dolls sale, expected to fetch £120–£150.

    expressandstar.comKahl

Suzanne Bonamici, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DSuzanne Bonamici 97.1% 96.2% 98.2% 1.9 pts –
RBarbara Kahl 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 0.2 pts –

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Candidates & Background

Barbara Kahl

Republican

Barbara Kahl, a Republican veterinarian, is the Republican nominee for Oregon's 1st congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Suzanne Bonamici in the November general election.

Suzanne Bonamici

Suzanne Bonamici

Democratic U.S. Representative for Oregon's 1st congressional district (since 2012)

Suzanne Bonamici, a Democrat who has represented Oregon's 1st congressional district since winning a 2012 special election, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Barbara Kahl, a veterinarian.

Born 1954 · Detroit

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi5.6K contracts

Oregon's 1st District margin of victory

Bonamici, 33+ pts
95.0%
Bonamici, 36+ pts
91.3%
Bonamici, 39+ pts
84.5%
Bonamici, 42+ pts
76.0%
Bonamici, 45+ pts
64.5%
Bonamici, 48+ pts
51.5%
Bonamici, 51+ pts
37.5%
Bonamici, 54+ pts
24.5%
Bonamici, 57+ pts
11.3%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$10.1K traded

OR-01 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins
0.5%
Democrat 0-20%
4.5%
Democrat 20-30%
0.6%
Democrat 30-35%
8.3%
Democrat 35-40%
4.2%
Democrat 40-45%
22.9%
Democrat 45-50%
31.5%
Democrat 50-55%
24.0%
Democrat 55-60%
5.0%
Democrat 60%+
3.9%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$27.6K traded

Prices which party wins.

Suzanne Bonamici: Counted · bid 94.5% / ask 98.0% · $782 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi659 contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Suzanne Bonamici: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 99.7% · $624 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Suzanne Bonamici

If the House member sworn in for OR-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi