US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for Oregon Senate.
Washington, Oct 16 (IANS) Two Democratic US senators introduced a resolution seeking to block President Donald Trump's civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, warning that the deal lacks safeguards…
MerkleyIn the United States, Democratic Senators Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Ed Markey of Massachusetts introduced a joint resolution of disapproval aimed at blocking President Donald Trump’s administration’s agreement with…
“This century is going to belong to the nations that invest the most in education and infrastructure, not the ones that dribble away their national wealth in foreign wars and foreign military bases,” Merkley said.
WASHINGTON, D.C. - Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley and Massachusetts Sen. Edward Markey introduced a resolution that would force the Senate to vote on blocking a proposed nuclear deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
MerkleyWashington, D.C. – Oregon’s U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley: a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: and Massachusetts’ U.S. Senator Edward J.
The table below shows the leading candidate in each race, the current odds on Kalshi and whether they are an incumbent.
All politics is local, so it’s time for you to do your civic duty and vote: and vote now! Read your ballot, study who and what is on it (and read these endorsements) and get yourself to a ballot box.
SmithCurrently, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley and Republican David Brock Smith are battling for an Oregon senate seat.
SmithKotek, Drazan focus on development at final debate in Bend for Oregon governor’s race
David Brock Smith is looking to defeat Democratic U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley and be the first Republican elected to represent Oregon since 2002.
This time around, Merkley faces state Sen. David Brock Smith (R-Port Orford), a more able contender than Perkins or Wehby.
SmithThis is part of a series of stories on the candidates running in the Nov. 3 election. Ballots will be mailed to voters Oct. 14.
SmithOregon Senator Jeff Merkley co-leads a bipartisan bill reauthorizing the Secure Rural Schools and Community Self-Determination Act (SRS) for three more years.
Jeff Merkley is seeking re-election to the U.S. Senate representing Oregon in the November 3, 2026 election.
MerkleyJeff Merkley is seeking reelection to Oregon’s U.S. Senate seat in the November 3, 2026 election.
MerkleyNo story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJeff Merkley | 97.8% | 97.6% | 97.8% | 0.2 pts | – | |
| RDavid Brock Smith | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Republican member of the Oregon State Senate since 2023 and the Republican nominee challenging Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley in Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate election.
Jeff Merkley, a Democrat who has represented Oregon in the U.S. Senate since 2009, is seeking a fourth term in 2026 against Republican state senator David Brock Smith.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Oregon Senate margin of victory
| Merkley, 13+ pts | 94.3% | |
| Merkley, 15+ pts | 91.6% | |
| Merkley, 17+ pts | 85.0% | |
| Merkley, 19+ pts | 78.5% | |
| Merkley, 21+ pts | 70.0% | |
| Merkley, 23+ pts | 60.5% | |
| Merkley, 25+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Merkley, 27+ pts | 39.0% | |
| Merkley, 29+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Merkley, 31+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Merkley, 33+ pts | 13.0% |
Oregon Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Republican Wins | 4.1% | |
| Democrat 0-5% | 3.4% | |
| Democrat 5-10% | 4.8% | |
| Democrat 10-15% | 7.1% | |
| Democrat 15-20% | 18.5% | |
| Democrat 20-25% | 23.5% | |
| Democrat 25-30% | 23.0% | |
| Democrat 30-35% | 21.1% | |
| Democrat 35%+ | 4.7% |
Prices which party wins.
Jeff Merkley: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 97.9% · $5.0K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Jeff Merkley: Counted · bid 97.8% / ask 97.9% · $20.2K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Jeff Merkley
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Oregon for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
