House · 3 November 2026

OR-04 House 2026

95.1% DVal Hoyle leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 94.5%
Kalshi: 95.3%
Spread: 0.9 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Val Hoyle, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DVal Hoyle	95.1%		94.5%	95.3%	0.9 pts	–
RMonique DeSpain	4.5%		4.5%	3.9%	0.6 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Monique DeSpain

Republican

Monique DeSpain, a Republican attorney who was the party's 2024 nominee for Oregon's 4th congressional district, is again the Republican nominee in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Val Hoyle.

Full candidate profile →

Val Hoyle

Democratic U.S. Representative for Oregon's 4th congressional district (since 2023)

Val Hoyle, a Democrat who has represented Oregon's 4th congressional district since 2023 after serving as Oregon's labor commissioner, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican attorney Monique DeSpain.

Born 1964 · Travis Air Force Base, Fairfield, California

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi4.1K contracts

Oregon's 4th District margin of victory

Hoyle, 6+ pts		91.3%
Hoyle, 9+ pts		81.5%
Hoyle, 12+ pts		71.5%
Hoyle, 15+ pts		62.0%
Hoyle, 18+ pts		51.5%
Hoyle, 21+ pts		40.5%
Hoyle, 24+ pts		30.5%
Hoyle, 27+ pts		20.5%
Hoyle, 30+ pts		9.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$22.8K traded

OR-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		2.8%
Democrat 0-5%		2.8%
Democrat 5-10%		–
Democrat 10-15%		15.5%
Democrat 15-20%		23.5%
Democrat 20-25%		30.0%
Democrat 25-30%		14.5%
Democrat 30-35%		–
Democrat 35%+		3.2%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$35.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Val Hoyle: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $323 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.9K contracts traded