nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

OR-02 House 2026

96.1% RCliff Bentz leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
95.0%
Kalshi
97.8%
Spread
2.7 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.2
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for OR-02 House.

  1. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  2. Here are the farmers and ranchers in Congress

    Farmers who decide to run will also have the job of educating their fellow members of Congress, Newhouse said.

    capitalpress.comGaramendiBairdRischSmithGallagherLucasBaslerCooverBentzPingreeMillerWestermanBabin
  3. Hörmann enhances support for installers

    Extended NT60 colour promotion and ongoing enhancements to the Hörmann Rewards platform.

    ggpmag.comBeck
  4. Salisbury Glass partners with Stellar Aluminium

    Salisbury Glass has become the latest fabricator to partner with Stellar Aluminium, strengthening its premium aluminium windows and doors with Stellar’s fast service and ongoing product development.

    ggpmag.comBeck
  5. Insight Data launches new version of Salestracker

    Insight Data has launched a new generation of Salestracker, the growth platform for the glazing, construction, and wider building sectors.

    ggpmag.comBeck
More coverage 1
  1. Baby Tapir Gives Listeners Room to Find Their Own Meaning in “Bright And Morningstar”

    Chris Beck, the Milwaukee-based musician behind Baby Tapir, crafts “Bright And Morningstar” with a highly deliberate, solitary creative process.

    groove-africa.comBeck

Cliff Bentz, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RCliff Bentz 96.1% 95.0% 97.8% 2.7 pts –
DChris Beck 5.0% 5.0% 2.4% 2.7 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/or-02/embed.html" title="OR-02 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/or-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-or-02">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/or-02/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-or-02"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/or-02/card-landscape.png" alt="OR-02 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Chris Beck

Democratic

Chris Beck, a Democrat who served in the Oregon House of Representatives from 1997 to 2003, is the Democratic nominee for Oregon's 2nd congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent Cliff Bentz.

Born 1963 · Portland, Oregon
Cliff Bentz

Cliff Bentz

Republican U.S. Representative for Oregon's 2nd congressional district (since 2021)

Cliff Bentz, a Republican lawyer who has represented Oregon's 2nd congressional district since 2021, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat Chris Beck, a former Oregon state representative.

Born 1952 · Salem, Oregon

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.0K contracts

Oregon's 2nd District margin of victory

Bentz, 11+ pts
94.0%
Bentz, 14+ pts
89.0%
Bentz, 17+ pts
79.5%
Bentz, 20+ pts
66.5%
Bentz, 23+ pts
51.5%
Bentz, 26+ pts
35.5%
Bentz, 29+ pts
22.5%
Bentz, 32+ pts
11.8%
Bentz, 35+ pts
5.4%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$18.4K traded

OR-02 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
–
Republican 0-10%
1.1%
Republican 10-15%
4.3%
Republican 15-20%
32.0%
Republican 20-25%
31.5%
Republican 25-30%
22.4%
Republican 30-35%
3.8%
Republican 35-40%
1.0%
Republican 40%+
1.1%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$21.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Cliff Bentz: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.1% · $967 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi1.9K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Cliff Bentz: Counted · bid 96.0% / ask 99.5% · $585 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Cliff Bentz

If the House member sworn in for OR-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Oregon

  1. Oregon SenateD98%
  2. Oregon GovernorD76%
  3. OR-01 HouseD97%
  4. OR-03 HouseD96%
  5. OR-04 HouseD95%
  6. OR-05 HouseD95%
  7. OR-06 HouseD96%