Top story
Blackburn promotes coal, nuclear while Green vows to protect rivers, forest and farmland
Tennessee gubernatorial candidates Jerri Green and Marsha Blackburn are divided on data centers, energy and environmental issues.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Governor · 3 November 2026
Tennessee Governor 2026
- Polymarket
- 92.5%
- Kalshi
- 92.0%
- Spread
- 0.7 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- −2.8
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for Tennessee Governor.
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West Tennessee voters share mixed views on 2026 gubernatorial race | Local News
Jerri Green is the Democratic candidate for the governorship
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Tennessee is likely about to elect its first woman governor | Video
Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and Jerri Green (D-TN) are racing for their state's governor's seat, meaning whoever wins the race will be Tennessee's first woman governor.
nbc39.com
Green -
Marsha Blackburn
Senator Marsha Blackburn the next Governor of the State of Tennessee. Throughout my tenure as Chief of Police and now as Sheriff of Madison County, Senator
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The American dream should still work in Tennessee
U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn represents Tennessee in the U.S. Senate. Elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2024, she is the 2026 Republican nominee for governor of Tennessee.
The Tennessean
Blackburn -
Jerri Green says Tennessee families deserve a stronger voice
That is the standard our democracy deserves. And it is the standard every one of us should demand.
The TennesseanGreen
More coverage 9
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Marsha Blackburn’s AI Video Draws Criticism During
As Marsha Blackburn campaigns to become Tennessee governor, her latest social media post has drawn attention for a reason her campaign may not have intended. The U.S.
JournalArta GlobalBlackburn -
Early voting begins in Tennessee; Marsha Blackburn casts her ballot
Marsha Blackburn is actively campaigning for Tennessee governor, encouraging early voting as the election period begins.
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DECISION 2026: The two leading gubernatorial candidates’ message to voters as early voting starts | Local News
The article covers the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial race, highlighting the two leading candidates and their messaging as early voting begins.
local3news.comGreen -
Blackburn excited to lead Tennessee if elected governor | News
Marsha Blackburn, a Republican U.S. Senator, was campaigning in Sevier County as early voting for the Tennessee governor race approached.
Sevierville Mountain PressBlackburn -
Anti-Hatley PAC Spends $4.2M, Blackburn Raises $2.1M More
An anti-Hatley super PAC spent $4.2 million to attack Hatley, described as a self-funder.
pro.stateaffairs.comBlackburn -
Independent candidates face steep hurdles in Tennessee governor’s race
Marsha Blackburn is the Republican candidate in Tennessee’s governor’s race, which features 15 candidates total (including 13 independents and Democrat Jerri Green).
WSMVBlackburn -
The race begins: Early voting brings out governor candidates, what you need to know before hitting the polls
The article covers early voting in Tennessee as candidates campaign, including U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (Republican) and Democrat Jerri Green.
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Election 2026: Early voting for Tennessee’s November 3 general election is underway
The page covers Tennessee’s 2026 gubernatorial race and notes that early voting for the November 3 general election is underway.
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Tennessee Governor candidates address safety, affordability, schools, and more
Revenue and budgeting: Green argues localities have limited revenue levers (relying on wheel tax; no state income tax; state property tax not issued for 70+ years).
WZTVGreen
No story this week names this candidate.
Marsha Blackburn, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Which party wins · Polymarket and Kalshi | ||||||
| RMarsha Blackburn | 92.0% | 92.5% | 92.0% | 0.6 pts | – | |
| DJerri Green | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 0.7 pts | – | |
| Which candidate wins · Kalshi | ||||||
| David Hatley | 2.5% Kalshi only |
– | 2.5% | – | – | |
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Candidates & Background
Jerri Green
Democratic Memphis City Council member, 2nd district (since 2024)
Jerri Green, a Memphis city councilor representing the 2nd district since 2024, is the Democratic nominee for governor of Tennessee in 2026.
Marsha Blackburn
Republican U.S. Senator from Tennessee (since 2019)
Marsha Blackburn, a Republican U.S. senator from Tennessee since 2019 and former congresswoman, won her party's 2026 nomination for governor of Tennessee on August 6, 2026.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi859 contracts
Tennessee Governor margin of victory
| Blackburn, 3+ pts | 93.5% | |
| Blackburn, 6+ pts | 90.8% | |
| Blackburn, 9+ pts | 82.5% | |
| Blackburn, 12+ pts | 67.5% | |
| Blackburn, 15+ pts | 49.5% | |
| Blackburn, 18+ pts | 32.5% | |
| Blackburn, 21+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Blackburn, 24+ pts | 8.9% | |
| Blackburn, 27+ pts | 3.9% | |
| Blackburn, 30+ pts | 2.8% | |
| Blackburn, 33+ pts | 4.7% implied |
Polymarket$12.3K traded
Tennessee Governor Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 4.3% | |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.4% | |
| Republican 5-10% | 17.4% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 25.5% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 27.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 17.0% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 5.5% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 3.1% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 7.7% | |
| Republican 40%+ | 0.9% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$20.5K traded
Prices which party wins.
Marsha Blackburn: Counted · bid 92.3% / ask 92.7% · $5.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi137.2K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Marsha Blackburn: Counted · bid 91.9% / ask 92.0% · $30.8K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Marsha Blackburn
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Tennessee pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Tennessee
- Tennessee SenateR95%
- TN-01 HouseR97%
- TN-02 HouseR96%
- TN-03 HouseR97%
- TN-04 HouseR97%
- TN-05 HouseR94%
- TN-06 HouseR95%
- TN-07 HouseR96%