Top story
Molder, Hatcher Face Off for Tennessee U.S. House Seat
The article covers the Tennessee U.S. House race in the reconfigured 5th District, featuring Democrat Chaz Molder and Republican Charlie Hatcher.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026
TN-08 House 2026
- Polymarket
- 96.7%
- Kalshi
- 96.4%
- Spread
- 0.7 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +1.6
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for TN-08 House.
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Finance reports: Tennessee Democrats boost funding for key races in final push to election day
The Tennessee Lookout article notes that Heidi Kuhn, a candidate for Tennessee's 8th Congressional District (TN-08), is mentioned among contributors in a finance report tied to Democrats' final push before Election Day.
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Tennessee candidate portraits from the Knox News voter's guide
The referenced Knox News voter's guide photo gallery highlights Tennessee political candidates, including incumbents and challengers for state House districts.
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Thank you to the Milan Lions Club for inviting me to speak with your members!
Heidi Kuhn is a candidate for Tennessee’s 8th Congressional District (TN-08). The page highlights an appearance and speaking engagement with the Milan Lions Club.
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College kids! Home for fall break? Make voting part of your plans!
Campaign message: Encourages early voting and positions for change in Tennessee’s 8th Congressional District.
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East Texas Rep. Moran introduces bill to bring film industry jobs back to US
The article reports that U.S. Representative David Kustoff (R-TN-08) joined colleagues to introduce the Motion Picture, Television, and Entertainment Revitalization Act.
cinemamix360.com
Kustoff
More coverage 1
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DOJ, law enforcement leaders to discuss impact of Memphis Safe Task Force
The event features key federal and local leaders, including U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche, Senator Marsha Blackburn, Representative David Kustof? (likely David Kustoff), U.S.
WMCKustoff
No story this week names this candidate.
David Kustoff, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDavid Kustoff | 96.7% | 96.7% | 96.4% | 0.3 pts | – | |
| DHeidi Kuhn | 2.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
David Kustoff
Republican U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 8th congressional district (since 2017)
David Kustoff, a Republican attorney who has represented Tennessee's 8th congressional district since 2017 and was U.S. attorney for the Western District of Tennessee from 2006 to 2008, faces Democrat Heidi Kuhn in 2026.
Heidi Kuhn
Democratic Shelby County Criminal Court Clerk
Heidi Kuhn, a Democrat who serves as Shelby County Criminal Court clerk, is her party's nominee for Tennessee's 8th congressional district in 2026 against Republican incumbent David Kustoff.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi14.5K contracts
Tennessee's 8th District margin of victory
| Kustoff, 7+ pts | 93.7% | |
| Kustoff, 10+ pts | 87.2% | |
| Kustoff, 13+ pts | 77.5% | |
| Kustoff, 16+ pts | 64.5% | |
| Kustoff, 19+ pts | 50.5% | |
| Kustoff, 22+ pts | 37.0% | |
| Kustoff, 25+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Kustoff, 28+ pts | 18.0% | |
| Kustoff, 31+ pts | 14.0% | |
| Kustoff, 34+ pts | 9.6% | |
| Kustoff, 37+ pts | 7.6% | |
| Kustoff, 40+ pts | 5.1% implied | |
| Kustoff, 43+ pts | 4.9% implied | |
| Kustoff, 46+ pts | 4.8% implied | |
| Kustoff, 49+ pts | 4.6% implied |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$50.2K traded
Prices which party wins.
David Kustoff: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 97.0% · $8.1K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi9.6K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
David Kustoff: Counted · bid 95.3% / ask 97.6% · $1.4K within 5 pts
Contract shown: David Kustoff
If the House member sworn in for TN-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Tennessee
- Tennessee SenateR95%
- Tennessee GovernorR92%
- TN-01 HouseR97%
- TN-02 HouseR96%
- TN-03 HouseR97%
- TN-04 HouseR97%
- TN-05 HouseR94%
- TN-06 HouseR95%