House · 3 November 2026

TN-06 House 2026

95.4% RJohnny Garrett leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.0%
Kalshi: 96.0%
Spread: 1.4 pts
24h: –
7 days: 0.0
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TN-06 House.

4 stories this week

Top story

Donald Trump Rallies TN Voters Before Midterms

The article covers a campaign rally in Clarksville, TN, where President Donald Trump spoke ahead of the Midterms.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoGarrett

Yesterday
Garrett, Hilleary Trade AI-Fueled Attacks in 6th District Race
The article covers a clash in the Tennessee 6th District (TN-06) House race between incumbent Rep.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoGarrett
Wednesday, Oct 14
Nashville Voter Turnout Surges Compared to Last Midterm as Early Voting Begins
Johnny Garrett is a Republican candidate for the U.S. House in Tennessee's 6th Congressional District (TN-06).

tennesseeupdate.comYesterdayGarrett
Nashville voter turnout 15 times higher than last midterm so far
Johnny Garrett is the Republican candidate for Tennessee’s 6th Congressional District (TN-06) in the U.S. House. The seat is open, with incumbent positions unsettled, and Garrett is running against state Rep.

WPLNYesterdayGarrett

Johnny Garrett, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RJohnny Garrett	95.4%		95.0%	96.0%	1.0 pts	–
DMike Croley	4.3%		4.5%	3.1%	1.4 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-06/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tn-06">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Johnny Garrett

Republican Member of the Tennessee House of Representatives from the 45th district (since 2019)

Johnny Garrett, a Republican attorney who has represented the 45th district in the Tennessee House of Representatives since 2019, is his party's nominee for the open 6th congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Mike Croley.

Born 1978 · Goodlettsville, Tennessee

Full candidate profile →

Mike Croley

Democratic

Mike Croley, a Democrat, is his party's nominee for the open seat in Tennessee's 6th congressional district in 2026, facing Republican state representative Johnny Garrett in the November general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.1K contracts

Tennessee's 6th District margin of victory

Garrett, 4+ pts		92.9%
Garrett, 7+ pts		86.1%
Garrett, 10+ pts		75.5%
Garrett, 13+ pts		63.5%
Garrett, 16+ pts		49.5%
Garrett, 19+ pts		36.5%
Garrett, 22+ pts		26.0%
Garrett, 25+ pts		12.9%
Garrett, 28+ pts		5.7%
Garrett, 31+ pts		6.8% implied
Garrett, 34+ pts		5.1% implied
Garrett, 37+ pts		4.6% implied
Garrett, 40+ pts		4.5% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$11.6K traded

TN-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		4.1%
Republican 0-10%		4.7%
Republican 10-15%		26.0%
Republican 15-20%		26.5%
Republican 20-25%		22.8%
Republican 25-30%		20.0%
Republican 30-35%		4.0%
Republican 35-40%		3.2%
Republican 40%+		5.0%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$22.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Johnny Garrett: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 96.0% · $744 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi2.3K contracts traded