House · 3 November 2026

TN-09 House 2026

87.2% RBrent Taylor leads TruthIndex™Likely R

Polymarket: 87.5%
Kalshi: 87.0%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.1
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TN-09 House.

9 stories this week

Top story

Justin Pearson Joins DCCC's Red to Blue Program

Justin Pearson (D-Memphis) has joined the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, signaling national Democratic backing for his campaign.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h ago

Pearson

Yesterday
Pearson Trails Taylor by 4 Points in New TN-9 Poll
A TN-09 House race poll shows incumbent or favored candidate Pearson trailing Taylor by four points, despite broad district-wide support for Trump.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoPearson
Brent Taylor Aims to Flip Redrawn Tennessee 9th District
The article covers the race for Tennessee’s newly drawn 9th Congressional District (TN-9), focusing on Republican Brent Taylor and Democrat Justin Pearson as primary contenders.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoPearson Gegen Meyer
Pearson Presses TN-09 Bid Despite New District Lines
The article reports that Rep. Justin Pearson, a Democrat from Memphis, will remain in the race for Tennessee’s newly drawn 9th Congressional District (TN-09) despite redistricting.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoPearson Anabilah-Azumah Meyer
Early voting runs through Oct. 29 | Communities
Ballots will contain candidates for Tennessee governor, U.S. Senate and House of Representatives and state Senate and House of Representatives. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

williamsonherald.comYesterdayBradshaw Hagerty Taylor
Wednesday, Oct 14
Congressional candidates debate the issues
The Moore County News report covers Tennessee’s U.S. House race in the newly redrawn 9th District (Lynchburg to Memphis), highlighting energy prices, data centers, and crime as key issues.

themoorecountynews.comYesterdayPearson Taylor

More coverage 3

The Midterm Battle over Data Centers: Memphis House Candidate Justin Pearson Fights Elon Musk’s xAI
The Democracy Now! segment focuses on Tennessee politics, not Georgia. It highlights Democratic state Representative Justin J.

Democracy NowYesterdayGegen Taylor
Herald partners with Williamson Inc. to share candidate interviews | Communities
The article highlights a partnership between Herald and Williamson Inc. to share candidate interviews across communities, including coverage relevant to Tennessee races such as Brent Taylor’s bid for U.S.

williamsonherald.comYesterdayTaylor
Democrat Justin Pearson Rallies Williamson County Voters | News
Brent Taylor, a Republican State Senator (District 31, Shelby County) endorsed by Donald Trump, is challenging Democrat Justin Pearson in Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District race.

williamsonscene.comYesterdayTaylor

Brent Taylor, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RBrent Taylor	87.2%		87.5%	87.0%	0.5 pts	–
DJustin Pearson	12.5%		12.5%	12.5%	0.0 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-09/embed.html" title="TN-09 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-09/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tn-09">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-09/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tn-09"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-09/card-landscape.png" alt="TN-09 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Brent Taylor

Republican Member of the Tennessee Senate from the 31st district (since 2023)

Brent Taylor, a Republican who has represented the 31st district in the Tennessee Senate since 2023, is his party's nominee for the open 9th congressional district seat in 2026 against Democrat Justin Pearson.

Born 1968 · Batesville, Mississippi

Full candidate profile →

Justin Pearson

Democratic Member of the Tennessee House of Representatives from the 86th district (since 2023)

Justin Pearson, a Democrat who has represented the 86th district in the Tennessee House of Representatives since 2023, is his party's nominee for the open 9th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican state senator Brent Taylor.

Born 1995 · Memphis, Tennessee

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi664 contracts

Tennessee's 9th District margin of victory

Pearson, 37+ pts		4.5% implied
Pearson, 40+ pts		4.5% implied
Pearson, 43+ pts		4.5% implied
Pearson, 46+ pts		4.5% implied
Pearson, 49+ pts		4.5% implied
Pearson, 52+ pts		4.5% implied
Pearson, 55+ pts		4.5% implied
Pearson, 58+ pts		4.5% implied
Pearson, 61+ pts		4.5% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$46.8K traded

Prices which party wins.

Brent Taylor: Counted · bid 87.0% / ask 88.0% · $16.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi29.3K contracts traded