House · 3 November 2026

TN-04 House 2026

96.7% RScott DesJarlais leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 96.6%
Kalshi: 97.2%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.9
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Scott DesJarlais, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RScott DesJarlais	96.7%		96.6%	97.2%	0.5 pts	–
DVictoria Broderick	1.6%		1.6%	1.8%	0.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Scott DesJarlais

Republican U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 4th congressional district (since 2011)

Scott DesJarlais, a Republican physician who has represented Tennessee's 4th congressional district since 2011, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Victoria Broderick, a telemarketer.

Born 1964 · Des Moines, Iowa

Full candidate profile →

Victoria Broderick

Democratic

Victoria Broderick, a Democrat who works as a telemarketer, is her party's nominee for Tennessee's 4th congressional district in 2026, running against Republican incumbent Scott DesJarlais in the general election.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi10.9K contracts

Tennessee's 4th District margin of victory

DesJarlais, 6+ pts		94.7%
DesJarlais, 9+ pts		90.1%
DesJarlais, 12+ pts		81.5%
DesJarlais, 15+ pts		69.0%
DesJarlais, 18+ pts		54.5%
DesJarlais, 21+ pts		39.5%
DesJarlais, 24+ pts		26.0%
DesJarlais, 27+ pts		15.5%
DesJarlais, 30+ pts		7.0%
DesJarlais, 33+ pts		4.0%
DesJarlais, 36+ pts		5.4% implied
DesJarlais, 39+ pts		4.8% implied
DesJarlais, 42+ pts		4.6% implied
DesJarlais, 45+ pts		4.5% implied
DesJarlais, 48+ pts		4.5% implied

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$891 traded

TN-04 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		–
Republican 0-5%		0.6%
Republican 5-10%		–
Republican 10-15%		–
Republican 15-20%		–
Republican 20-25%		–
Republican 25-30%		–
Republican 30-35%		–
Republican 35%+		–

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$127.5K traded

Prices which party wins.

Scott DesJarlais: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 96.7% · $24.6K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi7.7K contracts traded