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Early voting runs through Oct. 29 | Communities
Ballots will contain candidates for Tennessee governor, U.S. Senate and House of Representatives and state Senate and House of Representatives. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Senate · 3 November 2026
Tennessee Senate 2026
- Polymarket
- 95.7%
- Kalshi
- 94.9%
- Spread
- 0.8 pts
- 24h
- –
- 7 days
- +0.9
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage
Live News
Recent coverage for Tennessee Senate.
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Hagerty seems a lock for second term in Senate
Staff File Photo / U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty, left, speaks with Miller Industries CEO William G. Miller II during a 2025 tour.
Chattanooga Times Free Press
Hagerty -
Full list of 2026 Senate race candidates
There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2026 midterm elections.
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President Trump's final sprint
The second priority is to increase Republican voter turnout. In Clarksville, the President urged voters to cast their ballots to support him and other Republican candidates.
vietnam.vn
Bradshaw -
ELECTION GUIDE, NOV. 3, 2026: TN, MS and AR
Marquita Bradshaw (D) – Bradshaw is a Memphis native who ran against Sen. Bill Hagerty in 2020. She also ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in 2024.
WREGBradshaw -
U.S. Senate candidate Marquita Bradshaw
johnsoncitypress.comBradshaw
More coverage 6
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Tennessee early voting begins. Dates, ID rules and absentee info
In the midterm elections, Tennessee voters will choose the next governor, one U.S. senator, nine members of the U.S. House of Representatives, and state Senate and House members.
The TennesseanBradshaw -
Election 2026: Early voting for Tennessee’s November 3 general election is underway
The page covers Tennessee’s 2026 gubernatorial race and notes that early voting for the November 3 general election is underway.
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GOP’s Blackburn releases AI Kendrick Lamar video, to some criticism
The Hill reports that Sen. Bill Hagerty is involved in a campaign video for Marsha Blackburn, who is running for governor in Tennessee.
The HillHagerty -
Early Voting starts today in Coffee County
The article notes that early voting in Coffee County has begun and highlights the U.S. Senate race in Tennessee.
tullahomanews.comHagerty -
Early voting for statewide, Winfield elections begins Wednesday
The piece notes that early voting for statewide and Winfield elections begins Wednesday, with incumbent U.S. Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) up for re-election.
independentherald.netHagerty -
Americans For Prosperity Names Senator Bill Hagerty a 2026 “Pioneer for Prosperity” Award Recipient - AFP-TN
Leadership on the GENIUS Act to establish a regulatory framework for emerging financial technologies, which AFP supported and helped become law in 2025.
tn.americansforprosperity.orgHagerty
No story this week names this candidate.
Bill Hagerty, last 60 days
How to read this chart
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in MethodologyAll outcomes
| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBill Hagerty | 95.0% | 95.7% | 94.9% | 0.8 pts | – | |
| DMarquita Bradshaw | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 0.5 pts | – |
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Candidates & Background
Bill Hagerty
Republican United States Senator from Tennessee (since 2021)
Bill Hagerty, a Republican U.S. senator from Tennessee since 2021 and former ambassador to Japan, is seeking a second term in 2026 in a rematch with Democrat Marquita Bradshaw.
Marquita Bradshaw
Democratic
Marquita Bradshaw, a Memphis environmental justice activist and the 2020 Democratic Senate nominee in Tennessee, is again her party's nominee against Republican Bill Hagerty in 2026.
Margin of victory
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kalshi4.8K contracts
Tennessee Senate margin of victory
| Hagerty, 4+ pts | 95.8% | |
| Hagerty, 6+ pts | 95.5% | |
| Hagerty, 8+ pts | 95.9% | |
| Hagerty, 10+ pts | 94.3% | |
| Hagerty, 12+ pts | 92.5% | |
| Hagerty, 14+ pts | 87.2% | |
| Hagerty, 16+ pts | 80.0% | |
| Hagerty, 18+ pts | 73.0% | |
| Hagerty, 20+ pts | 63.0% | |
| Hagerty, 22+ pts | 51.5% | |
| Hagerty, 24+ pts | 40.5% | |
| Hagerty, 26+ pts | 29.5% | |
| Hagerty, 28+ pts | 20.5% | |
| Hagerty, 30+ pts | 12.8% | |
| Hagerty, 32+ pts | 7.5% | |
| Hagerty, 34+ pts | 4.3% | |
| Hagerty, 36+ pts | 6.3% implied |
Polymarket$9.1K traded
Tennessee Senate Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 4.8% | |
| Republican 0-10% | 3.1% | |
| Republican 10-15% | 12.0% | |
| Republican 15-20% | 25.5% | |
| Republican 20-25% | 27.5% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 16.0% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 9.2% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 4.4% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 2.8% | |
| Republican 45%+ | 4.4% |
Each venue's market
Polymarket$96.7K traded
Prices which party wins.
Bill Hagerty: Counted · bid 95.0% / ask 96.4% · $7.7K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Tennessee U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Full rules on PolymarketKalshi419.6K contracts traded
Prices which party wins.
Bill Hagerty: Counted · bid 94.1% / ask 95.7% · $34.6K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Bill Hagerty
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Tennessee for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
Also in Tennessee
- Tennessee GovernorR92%
- TN-01 HouseR97%
- TN-02 HouseR96%
- TN-03 HouseR97%
- TN-04 HouseR97%
- TN-05 HouseR94%
- TN-06 HouseR95%
- TN-07 HouseR96%