nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

TN-03 House 2026

96.9% RChuck Fleischmann leads TruthIndex™Safe R
Polymarket
96.7%
Kalshi
97.5%
Spread
2.3 pts
24h
–
7 days
+0.9
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TN-03 House.

  1. Hatcher Unseats Ogles in 5th District, Garrett Wins in 6th

    The provided article from The Tennessee Journal (State Affairs Pro) reports on Tennessee congressional races in 2026, noting that Voters largely ignored Donald Trump’s backing for Ogles, while Garrett and Taylor won in…

    pro.stateaffairs.comGolladay
  2. Tennessee candidate portraits from the Knox News voter's guide

    The referenced Knox News voter's guide photo gallery highlights Tennessee political candidates, including incumbents and challengers for state House districts.

    Knoxville News SentinelBurkeKuhnGolladay
  3. Molder seeks affordability, common ground in 5th U.S. House race | Communities

    Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia and Democratic candidate for Tennessee's 5th Congressional District, discusses his campaign priorities during one of his campaign stops.

    williamsonherald.comMolderHatcherGolladay
  4. Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races

    Topic: Political spending in Colorado’s 5th District (CO-05) as part of the broader report “Political Money Wire: New Spending in Alaska and Eight Other Races.”

    insidepoliticalmoney.comJamesGrayBuckhoutCammackCiscomaniCrankConroyOrdenFleischmannHinesSteil
  5. Representatives Torres and Fleischmann Lead Bipartisan Bill to Build America’s Advanced Manufacturing Workforce

    The press release highlights a bipartisan bill, the Advanced Manufacturing Jobs in America Act of 2026, introduced by Rep. Norma Torres (CA-35) and Rep.

    torres.house.govOfficialFreseFleischmannGolladay
More coverage 3
  1. DOE awards TVA $250 million to expand transmission capacity, support 800 jobs

    The article covers U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (TN-03) praising TVA’s $250 million DOE award to expand transmission capacity and create about 800 jobs.

    teknovation.bizFleischmann
  2. TVA Gets $250 Million From U.S. Department Of Energy For Grid Upgrades

    The Tennessee Conservative reports U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (TN-03) praised TVA official Shankar Skaggs for securing $250 million from the U.S. Department of Energy for grid upgrades.

    Tennessee ConservativeFleischmann
  3. New grant funds TVA grid upgrades: Congressman pushes higher borrowing ceiling

    Representative Chuck Fleischmann (TN-03) is advocating to raise the TVA borrowing limit from $30 billion to $50–60 billion to give the utility more capacity to fund new power generation (natural gas, nuclear, solar,…

    WTVCFleischmann

Chuck Fleischmann, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
RChuck Fleischmann 96.9% 96.7% 97.5% 0.9 pts –
DAnna Golladay 3.5% 3.6% 1.4% 2.3 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-03/embed.html" title="TN-03 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-03/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tn-03">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-03/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tn-03"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-03/card-landscape.png" alt="TN-03 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Anna Golladay

Democratic

Anna Golladay, a Democrat and small business owner, is her party's nominee for Tennessee's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent Chuck Fleischmann in the general election.

Chuck Fleischmann

Chuck Fleischmann

Republican U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 3rd congressional district (since 2011)

Chuck Fleischmann, a Republican who has represented Tennessee's 3rd congressional district since 2011, is seeking re-election in 2026 against Democrat Anna Golladay, a small business owner.

Born 1962 · Manhattan, New York City

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi461 contracts

Tennessee's 3rd District margin of victory

Fleischmann, 19+ pts
93.5%
Fleischmann, 22+ pts
85.0%
Fleischmann, 25+ pts
73.5%
Fleischmann, 28+ pts
58.5%
Fleischmann, 31+ pts
42.5%
Fleischmann, 34+ pts
27.5%
Fleischmann, 37+ pts
15.5%
Fleischmann, 40+ pts
6.8%
Fleischmann, 43+ pts
3.6%
Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$13.8K traded

TN-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins
0.2%
Republican 0-5%
0.1%
Republican 5-15%
5.2%
Republican 15-20%
3.8%
Republican 20-25%
21.9%
Republican 25-30%
26.5%
Republican 30-35%
25.3%
Republican 35-40%
–
Republican 40-45%
3.1%
Republican 45%+
2.4%
Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$44.9K traded

Prices which party wins.

Chuck Fleischmann: Counted · bid 96.4% / ask 97.0% · $1.2K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi14.5K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Chuck Fleischmann: Counted · bid 97.5% / ask 97.6% · $321 within 5 pts

Contract shown: Chuck Fleischmann

If the House member sworn in for TN-03 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Tennessee

  1. Tennessee SenateR95%
  2. Tennessee GovernorR92%
  3. TN-01 HouseR97%
  4. TN-02 HouseR96%
  5. TN-04 HouseR97%
  6. TN-05 HouseR94%
  7. TN-06 HouseR95%
  8. TN-07 HouseR96%