US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for TN-05 House.
Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia and Democratic candidate for Tennessee's 5th Congressional District, discusses his campaign priorities during one of his campaign stops.
MEMPHIS, Tenn.: A fresh face will take over the seat in Tennessee's 5th congressional district after U.S. Representative Andy Ogles lost in this August's federal primary election.
Republican Charlie Hatcher is in the final stretch of his campaign for Tennessee's 5th Congressional District as he faces Democrat Chaz Molder in the Nov. 3 general election.
“And as commissioner, Hatcher got six reminders to apply for funding for local farms, but still missed the deadline, and Tennessee taxpayers had to foot the bill.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCharlie Hatcher | 94.4% | 94.5% | 94.3% | 0.1 pts | – | |
| DChaz Molder | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 0.2 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Charlie Hatcher, a Republican dairy farmer who served as Tennessee commissioner of agriculture from 2019 to 2025, is his party's 2026 nominee for Tennessee's 5th congressional district against Democrat Chaz Molder, mayor of Columbia.
Chaz Molder, a Democrat who has served as mayor of Columbia since 2018, is his party's nominee for Tennessee's 5th congressional district in 2026 against Republican Charlie Hatcher, a former state commissioner of agriculture.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Tennessee's 5th District margin of victory
| Hatcher, 2+ pts | 85.0% | |
| Hatcher, 5+ pts | 75.5% | |
| Hatcher, 8+ pts | 63.5% | |
| Hatcher, 11+ pts | 50.5% | |
| Hatcher, 14+ pts | 36.5% | |
| Hatcher, 17+ pts | 24.5% | |
| Hatcher, 20+ pts | 14.0% | |
| Hatcher, 23+ pts | 7.6% |
Tennessee's 5th District margin of victory
| Molder, 1+ pts | 4.7% | |
| Molder, 4+ pts | 3.8% |
TN-05 House Election Margin of Victory
| Republican 21%+ | 5.1% | |
| Republican 18-21% | 4.5% | |
| Republican 15-18% | 12.0% | |
| Republican 12-15% | 16.5% | |
| Republican 9-12% | 22.5% | |
| Republican 6-9% | 14.0% | |
| Republican 3-6% | 19.0% | |
| Republican 0-3% | 1.2% | |
| Democrat 0-3% | 3.1% | |
| Democrat 3%+ | 1.3% |
Prices which party wins.
Charlie Hatcher: Counted · bid 94.0% / ask 95.0% · $945 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Charlie Hatcher: Counted · bid 93.6% / ask 95.1% · $25.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Charlie Hatcher
If the House member sworn in for TN-05 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
