House · 3 November 2026

TN-07 House 2026

95.8% RMatt Van Epps leads TruthIndex™Safe R

Polymarket: 95.8%
Kalshi: 95.6%
Spread: 1.2 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.6
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for TN-07 House.

5 stories this week

Top story

Tennessee Lawmakers Prepare for New Legislative Session

The article discusses Tennessee lawmakers preparing for the 2025 legislative session, with a focus on the House Republican leadership and strategic priorities.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoCopeland

Yesterday
Aftyn Behn to focus on state House reelection
The article notes that Aftyn Behn will not run for re-election to the 7th Congressional District this year; she plans to focus on reelection to the state House.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoCopeland
Survey shows 57% undecided in 7th District GOP race
Darden Copeland in TN-07: The page reports that undecided voters dominate early polling in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District race.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoCopeland
Gov. Lee backs Van Epps in 7th District election
Article reports that Gov. Bill Lee endorses former Cabinet member Van Epps in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District race.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoCopeland
TNJ: 7Th District Special Election: GOP, Democrats Compete for Seat
The page covers the Tennessee 7th District special election (TN-07) with a focus on campaign ad spending and messaging as early voting ends.

pro.stateaffairs.com17h agoCopeland

Matt Van Epps, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RMatt Van Epps	95.8%		95.8%	95.6%	0.2 pts	–
DDarden Copeland	3.3%		3.0%	4.2%	1.2 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/tn-07/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-tn-07">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Darden Copeland

Democratic

Darden Copeland, a Democrat and consultant who ran for the seat in 2025, is his party's 2026 nominee for Tennessee's 7th congressional district against Republican incumbent Matt Van Epps.

Full candidate profile →

Matt Van Epps

Republican U.S. Representative for Tennessee's 7th congressional district (since 2025)

Matt Van Epps, a Republican and former Army officer who has represented Tennessee's 7th congressional district since winning a December 2025 special election, is seeking a full term in 2026 against Democrat Darden Copeland.

Born 1983

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi646 contracts

Tennessee's 7th District margin of victory

Epps, 4+ pts		86.5%
Epps, 7+ pts		74.5%
Epps, 10+ pts		62.0%
Epps, 13+ pts		52.5%
Epps, 16+ pts		43.5%
Epps, 19+ pts		34.5%
Epps, 22+ pts		25.5%
Epps, 25+ pts		15.5%
Epps, 28+ pts		7.8%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$14.0K traded

TN-07 House Election Margin of Victory

Democrat Wins		1.1%
Republican 0-5%		4.8%
Republican 5-10%		38.5%
Republican 10-15%		26.5%
Republican 15-20%		20.5%
Republican 20-25%		8.3%
Republican 25-30%		4.5%
Republican 30%+		5.1%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$43.3K traded

Prices which party wins.

Matt Van Epps: Counted · bid 95.1% / ask 96.5% · $6.9K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi6.9K contracts traded