US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for GA-04 House.
The Georgia House of Representatives is considering a Senate-approved congressional map after a House committee advanced it. The map has now moved toward a vote on the House floor.
1) The unknowns and jockeying around potential leadership contenders, including Jason Smith (Missouri) and other members who are considering runs or influenced by internal groups like the Republican Study Committee…
While Republicans in Congress remain more fixated on pushing through Trump’s tariffs, voting for endless wars and cutting your healthcare than doing work that helps the American people, I remain focused on the…
The page is a general election overview for Michigan’s 4th Congressional District (not Georgia’s GA-04). It profiles incumbent Republican Bill Huizenga, who is seeking re-election to a eighth term.
The article reports that South Carolina prosecutors, including Scarlett Wilson, Duffie Stone, and Kevin Brackett, found no evidence to support allegations made by U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace against Musgrave.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHank Johnson | 98.3% | 98.0% | 98.4% | 0.4 pts | – | |
| RJames Duffie | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.1 pts | – |
Image cards with the current TruthIndex™, for posts and stories.
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Hank Johnson, a Democrat who has represented Georgia's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House since 2007, seeks reelection in 2026 against Republican James Duffie, a retired executive director for Pure Water Worldwide.
James Duffie, a veteran and retired executive director for Pure Water Worldwide, is the Republican nominee for Georgia's 4th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Hank Johnson.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Georgia's 4th District margin of victory
| Johnson, 43+ pts | 95.4% implied | |
| Johnson, 46+ pts | 94.8% implied | |
| Johnson, 49+ pts | 93.1% implied | |
| Johnson, 52+ pts | 93.0% | |
| Johnson, 55+ pts | 85.0% | |
| Johnson, 58+ pts | 72.5% | |
| Johnson, 61+ pts | 54.0% | |
| Johnson, 64+ pts | 25.0% implied | |
| Johnson, 67+ pts | 12.5% |
Prices which party wins.
Hank Johnson: Counted · bid 97.4% / ask 98.5% · $749 within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
Hank Johnson: Counted · bid 97.0% / ask 99.7% · $2.3K within 5 pts
Contract shown: Hank Johnson
If the House member sworn in for GA-04 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
