nijinnUS Midterms 2026
Updated Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
House · 3 November 2026

GA-06 House 2026

97.6% DLucy McBath leads TruthIndex™Safe D
Polymarket
96.8%
Kalshi
98.8%
Spread
2.0 pts
24h
–
7 days
+1.6
Updated
Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET
Latest coverage

Live News

Recent coverage for GA-06 House.

  1. Club championship game number 128 on Sunday for Stephen McGrath

    The page discusses the Club Championship game number 128 on Sunday featuring Stephen McGrath.

    donegallive.ieMartin
  2. ANCA endorses congressional allies for 2026 midterm elections

    Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA-42) – B [...] Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) – A

    armenianweekly.comMiller-MeeksMcBathCorreaMcClainSánchezLeeFriedmanMfumeRivetMullinCalvertMorrisonCammackChuHarderOlszewskiRutherfordMoolenaarGaramendiCastroPatronisPanettaMcGovernBairdShreveHurdObernolte
  3. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian – Armenian Directory & News

    The article from Armenian Directory & News reports that the ANCA (American n) endorses Congressional allies and grades members of Congress on their pro-Armenian stance.

    armenianclub.comDeanMcBathSmuckerUnderwoodGoodenSchrierSelfCammackHarderMorelleJacksonOlszewskiRutherfordJoyce
  4. Europe’s AI identity crisis

    The article notes Kevin Martin, Meta’s deputy chief global affairs officer, attended the Ireland-based EU tech summit instead of Meta's top leader, Mark Zuckerberg, who stayed away.

    PoliticoMartin
  5. Guitarist’s return reverses Candlebox’s retirement decision, and other metro music happenings

    Article: Guitari… (The Oakland Press) covers metro music happenings, focusing on Candlebox.

    Oakland PressMartin
More coverage 3
  1. ANCA Endorses Congressional Allies; Grades Members of Congress on Pro-Armenian Priorities

    Rep. Scott Eugene DesJarlais (R-TN-04) – C [...] Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-OR-05) – C

    asbarez.comMcBathBeattyHarderMorelleJoyceNeguseHayesSolisConawayReschenthalerBilirakisThompsonCisnerosWhitesidesLatimerPalmerAmoLucasBurlisonValadaoRouzerJoyceStrongWestermanPettersenMastJackBoyleShermanKnottWagnerMejiaAdamsMcDowellBeanCorreaUnderwoodCastorJacksonWilsonHimesJeffriesDavisTranBentzKurdian
  2. New TSA policy drawing pushback

    The article reports on a new TSA policy that is receiving pushback. Georgia Congresswoman Lucy McBath (GA-06) is getting involved in the pushback or criticism.

    WXIAMcBath
  3. Poor math skills don't excuse house arrest breach, Calgary judge finds

    Calgary judge rejects Buckley’s math-based excuse for breaking house arrest. Jason Buckley, under a six-month 24/7 curfew as part of an 18-month conditional sentence, breached the order by bathing at Lundbreck Falls.

    Calgary HeraldMartin

Lucy McBath, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

More in Methodology
TruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiGap between the venuesRating zones

All outcomes

OutcomeTruthIndex™PolymarketKalshiSpread24h
DLucy McBath 97.6% 96.8% 98.8% 2.0 pts –
RKevin Martin 2.0% 2.3% 1.7% 0.6 pts –
PolymarketKalshi

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<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ga-06/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ga-06">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

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Candidates & Background

Kevin Martin

Republican

Kevin Martin, a controller, is the Republican nominee for Georgia's 6th congressional district in 2026, facing Democratic incumbent Lucy McBath in the November general election.

Lucy McBath

Lucy McBath

Democratic U.S. Representative for Georgia's 6th congressional district (since 2025)

Lucy McBath, a Democrat who has served in the U.S. House from the Atlanta suburbs since 2019 and now represents Georgia's 6th congressional district, faces Republican Kevin Martin in her 2026 reelection race.

Born 1960 · Joliet, Illinois

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi1.7K contracts

Georgia's 6th District margin of victory

McBath, 41+ pts
96.5%
McBath, 44+ pts
89.0%
implied
McBath, 47+ pts
88.6%
McBath, 50+ pts
79.0%
McBath, 53+ pts
62.5%
McBath, 56+ pts
42.5%
McBath, 59+ pts
24.0%
McBath, 62+ pts
9.8%
McBath, 65+ pts
4.3%
Source: Kalshi market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$24.0K traded

Prices which party wins.

Lucy McBath: Counted · bid 96.6% / ask 97.0% · $3.3K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi9.8K contracts traded

Prices which party wins.

Lucy McBath: Counted · bid 97.8% / ask 99.7% · $2.1K within 5 pts

Contract shown: Lucy McBath

If the House member sworn in for GA-06 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.

Full rules on Kalshi

Also in Georgia

  1. Georgia SenateD95%
  2. Georgia GovernorR52%
  3. GA-01 HouseR90%
  4. GA-02 HouseD95%
  5. GA-03 HouseR96%
  6. GA-04 HouseD98%
  7. GA-05 HouseD99%
  8. GA-07 HouseR93%