US Midterms 2026
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Recent coverage for KY-01 House.
Walker Thomas, Myron Dossett and Jason Petrie are running unopposed for their individual district races for state representative and will appear on the ballot alone.
Ralph Alvarado, a former state senator and physician who’s running for the open 6th Congressional District seat vacated by Barr, also swooped up a coveted endorsement from the president.
ComerThe disclosures drew scrutiny from congressional Republicans, including House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Kentucky), who requested financial records from two companies tied to Tim Mynett in February.
ComerChairman Rep. James Comer (R-KY) during the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee meeting at the U.S. Capitol on March 25, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
ComerThe EdSource article reports on a Temecula Valley school board meeting where censure discussions and a call for resignations were planned, but the meeting was canceled due to a lack of quorum.
No story this week names this candidate.
The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.
The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.
More in Methodology| Outcome | TruthIndex™ | Polymarket | Kalshi | Spread | 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJames Comer | 96.6% | 96.3% | 98.1% | 1.8 pts | – | |
| DDrew Williams | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.8 pts | – |
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Drew Williams, a Democrat and event organizer, is his party's nominee for Kentucky's 1st congressional district in 2026, challenging Republican incumbent James Comer in the November 3 general election.
James Comer, a Republican who has represented Kentucky's 1st congressional district since 2016 and became chair of the House Oversight Committee in 2023, seeks re-election in 2026 against Democrat John "Drew" Williams, an event organizer.
Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.
Kentucky's 1st District margin of victory
| Comer, 28+ pts | 93.0% | |
| Comer, 31+ pts | 81.5% | |
| Comer, 34+ pts | 70.5% | |
| Comer, 37+ pts | 59.5% | |
| Comer, 40+ pts | 47.5% | |
| Comer, 43+ pts | 37.0% | |
| Comer, 46+ pts | 25.0% | |
| Comer, 49+ pts | 17.5% | |
| Comer, 52+ pts | 9.8% |
KY-01 House Election Margin of Victory
| Democrat Wins | 3.4% | |
| Republican 0-15% | 3.9% | |
| Republican 15-25% | 5.8% | |
| Republican 25-30% | 10.0% | |
| Republican 30-35% | 17.0% | |
| Republican 35-40% | 26.5% | |
| Republican 40-45% | 24.0% | |
| Republican 45-50% | 9.0% | |
| Republican 50-55% | 3.0% | |
| Republican 55%+ | 2.3% |
Prices which party wins.
James Comer: Counted · bid 95.7% / ask 96.9% · $4.9K within 5 pts
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Full rules on PolymarketPrices which party wins.
James Comer: Counted · bid 96.7% / ask 99.5% · $837 within 5 pts
Contract shown: James Comer
If the House member sworn in for KY-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
