House · 3 November 2026

KY-03 House 2026

96.9% DMorgan McGarvey leads TruthIndex™Safe D

Polymarket: 97.1%
Kalshi: 96.8%
Spread: 0.5 pts
24h: –
7 days: +0.2
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Morgan McGarvey, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
DMorgan McGarvey	96.9%		97.1%	96.8%	0.3 pts	–
RMaria Rodriguez	2.3%		2.1%	2.6%	0.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

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Candidates & Background

Maria Rodriguez

Republican

Maria Rodriguez, a Republican and cleaning contractor, is her party's nominee for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2026, challenging Democratic incumbent Morgan McGarvey in the November 3 general election.

Full candidate profile →

Morgan McGarvey

Democratic U.S. Representative for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district (since 2023)

Morgan McGarvey, a Democrat who has represented Kentucky's 3rd congressional district since 2023 and earlier led his party in the Kentucky Senate, seeks re-election in 2026 against Republican Maria Rodriguez.

Born 1979 · Louisville, Kentucky

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi2.5K contracts

Kentucky's 3rd District margin of victory

McGarvey, 17+ pts		94.3%
McGarvey, 20+ pts		86.3%
McGarvey, 23+ pts		75.5%
McGarvey, 26+ pts		65.0%
McGarvey, 29+ pts		54.0%
McGarvey, 32+ pts		43.5%
McGarvey, 35+ pts		31.5%
McGarvey, 38+ pts		21.5%
McGarvey, 41+ pts		10.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$15.2K traded

KY-03 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican Wins		0.1%
Democrat 0-5%		0.6%
Democrat 5-15%		0.3%
Democrat 15-20%		5.5%
Democrat 20-25%		2.9%
Democrat 25-30%		35.5%
Democrat 30-35%		35.5%
Democrat 35-40%		13.5%
Democrat 40-45%		3.8%
Democrat 45%+		1.6%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$48.4K traded

Prices which party wins.

Morgan McGarvey: Counted · bid 95.5% / ask 98.7% · $86 within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi3.9K contracts traded