House · 3 November 2026

KY-06 House 2026

68.4% RRalph Alvarado leads TruthIndex™Lean R

Polymarket: 65.5%
Kalshi: 69.5%
Spread: 4.0 pts
24h: –
7 days: −0.4
Updated: Oct 16, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Ralph Alvarado, last 60 days

How to read this chart

The green line is the TruthIndex™, the chance of this outcome. It combines the prices on both venues and gives more weight to the venue with more money in its order book. The two thinner lines are Polymarket's and Kalshi's own prices, and the grey band between them shows how far apart the two venues are.

The pale bands behind the lines are the rating zones (Toss-up, Lean, Likely and Safe), so you can see when the race moved from one rating to another. Move along the chart, or use the arrow keys, to read the values for each day.

All outcomes

Outcome	TruthIndex™		Polymarket	Kalshi	Spread	24h
RRalph Alvarado	68.4%		65.5%	69.5%	4.0 pts	–
DZach Dembo	31.7%		34.0%	30.5%	3.5 pts	–

Polymarket Kalshi

Share this race

Embed the live card

The card updates on your page every 5 minutes and links back to this race. Paste the code into an HTML or embed block; it fits any width up to 680 pixels.

<iframe src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ky-06/embed.html" title="KY-06 House: live odds from Nijinn" style="width:100%;max-width:680px;height:400px;border:0" loading="lazy" scrolling="no"></iframe>
<p style="margin:4px 0 0;font:12px/1.4 Arial,sans-serif">Live odds: <a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ky-06/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-credit&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ky-06">Nijinn US Midterms 2026</a></p>

Where frames are not allowed, the image card, linked to this race, updates with each refresh:

<a href="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ky-06/?utm_source=embed&amp;utm_medium=embed-image&amp;utm_campaign=midterms-2026&amp;utm_content=house-ky-06"><img src="https://midterms.nijinn.io/house/ky-06/card-landscape.png" alt="KY-06 House: odds from Nijinn" width="600" height="315" style="max-width:100%;height:auto;border:0"></a>

Candidates & Background

Ralph Alvarado

Republican

Ralph Alvarado, a Republican physician who served as Tennessee's commissioner of health from 2023 to 2025 and as a Kentucky state senator, is his party's nominee for the open 6th district seat in 2026 against Democrat Zach Dembo.

Born 1970 · San Francisco, California

Full candidate profile →

Zach Dembo

Democratic

Zach Dembo, a Democrat and former federal prosecutor, is his party's nominee for Kentucky's open 6th congressional district seat in 2026 against Republican Ralph Alvarado, a former Tennessee commissioner of health.

Full candidate profile →

Margin of victory

Each venue's margin market, shown on its own: the two venues set their ranges differently.

Kalshi3.5K contracts

Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory

Alvarado, 1+ pts		60.5%
Alvarado, 3+ pts		46.5%
Alvarado, 6+ pts		30.0%
Alvarado, 9+ pts		14.5%
Alvarado, 12+ pts		8.1%
Alvarado, 15+ pts		5.1%
Alvarado, 18+ pts		5.2% implied
Alvarado, 21+ pts		2.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Kalshi5.4K contracts

Kentucky's 6th District margin of victory

Yes

31.5%

Source: Kalshi market

Polymarket$16.3K traded

KY-06 House Election Margin of Victory

Republican 18%+		4.5%
Republican 15-18%		1.4%
Republican 12-15%		4.6%
Republican 9-12%		8.0%
Republican 6-9%		11.2%
Republican 3-6%		17.5%
Republican 0-3%		21.5%
Democrat 0-3%		18.2%
Democrat 3-6%		13.6%
Democrat 6%+		9.7%

Source: Polymarket market

Each venue's market

Polymarket$59.1K traded

Prices which party wins.

Ralph Alvarado: Counted · bid 65.0% / ask 66.0% · $12.7K within 5 pts

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Full rules on Polymarket

Kalshi126.4K contracts traded